Paul George's steals prop has hit the under in 6 of 10 games (40% over rate), averaging 1.4 steals against a 1.5 line. The under has generated a solid 14.6% ROI while overs have lost 23.6%. This trend points toward continued under value.
Expert Analysis
Paul George's defensive playmaking has been notably subdued during this 10-game stretch, falling short of the 1.5 steals line 60% of the time. The 1.4 average represents a meaningful 0.1 deficit that compounds over multiple bets, explaining the stark ROI difference between sides. George's steal production appears tied to his overall defensive engagement, which can fluctuate based on offensive load management and game flow. At 34 years old and managing his workload in Philadelphia's system, George may be picking his spots defensively rather than gambling for steals consistently. The current three-game under streak suggests this isn't just random variance but potentially reflects his role adjustment. Philadelphia's defensive scheme may also limit his steal opportunities compared to previous stops, as team defense often dictates individual defensive stats. The fact that both his longest over and under streaks hit exactly three games shows some volatility, but the overall trend heavily favors the under. Bettors should consider that George's veteran approach to defense prioritizes positioning over aggressive steal attempts, making the 1.5 line potentially inflated for his current role and age.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. George's 1.4 average creates a meaningful edge against the 1.5 line, supported by strong under ROI and a current three-game streak. The veteran's measured defensive approach in Philadelphia's system appears to limit aggressive steal attempts. Main risk is a defensive-minded game script that forces more gambling, but his age and role suggest continued conservative play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Paul George's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Paul George has gone 4-6 on his steals over/under in the last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. The under has been profitable with a 14.6% ROI while overs have lost bettors 23.6%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Paul George Steals last 10 games?
Bet the under on Paul George's steals. His 1.4 average sits below the typical 1.5 line, he's currently on a three-game under streak, and the under side has generated positive ROI while overs have been costly.
What's Paul George's average Steals last 10 games?
Paul George is averaging 1.4 steals over his last 10 games, which sits 0.1 below the standard 1.5 steals line. This small but consistent deficit has created betting value on the under side.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Paul George steals unders when he's in a veteran rest management phase or facing teams that limit transition opportunities. Avoid betting his steals props in high-pace games or when Philadelphia needs defensive stops late.