Paul George has been a consistent under performer on his points props, hitting just 20.0% overs (2-8-0 record) over his last 10 games. Averaging 20.2 points against a 22.2 line creates a significant -2.0 differential, generating strong under value with +52.7% ROI. This trend leans heavily toward continued under performance.
Expert Analysis
Paul George's dramatic underperformance stems from his challenging transition to Philadelphia's offensive system, where he's struggled to find consistent rhythm alongside Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. The 20.2 points per game average represents a meaningful decline from his typical production, suggesting either role adjustment issues or physical limitations affecting his scoring efficiency. The 3-game under streak, part of a broader pattern that includes a 4-game under stretch, indicates this isn't random variance but a systematic shift in his offensive output. George's inability to consistently reach the mid-20s scoring range that books expect reflects deeper issues with shot selection, usage rate, or conditioning. The -61.8% ROI on overs demonstrates how severely oddsmakers have overestimated his scoring capacity in this new environment. While regression toward his career norms seems inevitable, the persistence of this trend through 10 games suggests the underlying factors—whether scheme fit, health, or role definition—remain unresolved. The sample size provides meaningful insight into George's current ceiling rather than temporary struggles.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Paul George's 20.0% over rate and -2.0 differential against the line creates legitimate under value, particularly given the 3-game active streak. The ideal conditions involve games where his usage might be limited by game script or rest considerations. The primary risk is regression to his established scoring baseline, but the consistency of this underperformance suggests systemic rather than temporary issues affecting his offensive output in Philadelphia's system.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 25.5 | 14.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 22.5 | 22.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 23.5 | 18.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 22.5 | 26.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 22.5 | 22.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 19.5 | 29.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 18.5 | 15.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 20.5 | 18.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-26 | OPP | 22.5 | 21.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 24.5 | 17.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Paul George's Points prop record last 10 games?
Paul George has gone 2-8-0 on his points props over the last 10 games, hitting just 20.0% of his overs. He's averaging 20.2 points per game against lines typically set around 22.2, creating a consistent -2.0 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Paul George Points last 10 games?
Bet under on Paul George's points props. His 20.0% over rate and -2.0 average differential provide clear under value. The 3-game active under streak and +52.7% under ROI demonstrate this trend has legitimate betting merit rather than random variance.
What's Paul George's average Points last 10 games?
Paul George is averaging 20.2 points over his last 10 games, which sits 2.0 points below his typical line of 22.2. This significant gap between production and expectations has created consistent value for under bettors throughout this stretch.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Paul George points unders in games where Philadelphia faces strong defenses or when he's managing rest/load management. His current 20.0% over rate suggests the best opportunities come when books haven't fully adjusted lines to his reduced offensive role.