Paul George's away points props present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 37.5% of overs across 16 road games with a -0.4 point differential from his typical line. The under has delivered 19.3% ROI while overs have burned -28.4%. This road struggle creates consistent value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Paul George's road scoring woes stem from multiple converging factors that create a sustainable edge for under bettors. His 22.38 average away from home consistently falls short of the 22.81 lines oddsmakers set, suggesting the market hasn't fully adjusted to his road struggles. The 37.5% over rate across 16 games represents a significant sample size that reveals genuine performance deterioration on the road. George's shooting efficiency typically drops away from Philadelphia's home environment, where crowd energy and familiar sight lines boost confidence. Road games also introduce travel fatigue, disrupted routines, and hostile environments that particularly impact rhythm shooters like George. The -28.4% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently this trend has punished optimistic bettors, while the 19.3% under ROI shows real profit potential. His current two-game under streak aligns with a longer pattern of road inconsistency, including a seven-game under streak that highlights how extended these cold spells can become. The lack of positive regression despite the large sample suggests this isn't random variance but a genuine road disadvantage that creates repeatable betting value.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Paul George's road scoring consistently disappoints, with the under hitting 62.5% of the time and generating positive ROI. The 0.4-point gap between his average and typical lines creates consistent value, especially when his road number sits above 22.5. Main risk is a potential hot shooting night overcoming the trend, but the sample size and ROI data support continued under betting on George's away points props.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 25.5 | 14.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 23.5 | 18.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 22.5 | 26.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 22.5 | 22.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 19.5 | 29.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 18.5 | 15.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 20.5 | 18.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-26 | OPP | 22.5 | 21.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 24.5 | 17.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 24.5 | 12.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 23.5 | 16.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 23.5 | 22.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-03 | OPP | 22.5 | 33.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-02 | OPP | 22.5 | 25.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-24 | OPP | 25.5 | 34.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Paul George's Points prop record away games?
Paul George has gone 6-10 on points overs in away games, hitting just 37.5% of his over bets. He's averaging 22.38 points per road game across 16 contests this season, consistently falling short of market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Paul George Points away games?
Bet the under on Paul George's points in away games. The under has hit 62.5% of the time with 19.3% ROI, while overs have lost 28.4%. His road average falls 0.4 points below typical lines, creating consistent value.
What's Paul George's average Points away games?
Paul George averages 22.38 points in away games, which runs 0.4 points below his typical line of 22.81. This consistent shortfall has created profitable under opportunities throughout the season with a meaningful edge over market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Paul George under bets when his road points line exceeds 22.5, especially during back-to-back situations or long road trips. His efficiency drops significantly away from home, making higher lines particularly attractive for under betting.