Paul George's points props present a compelling under opportunity with just 35.3% overs across 17 games. His 22.35 scoring average consistently falls short of the 22.79 line, creating a -0.4 differential that has generated +23.5% ROI on unders.
Expert Analysis
Paul George's scoring struggles in Philadelphia reveal a player caught between roles and expectations. The 35.3% over rate isn't random variance — it reflects systematic issues with his offensive integration alongside Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. George's 22.35 average consistently trails his 22.79 line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his diminished role as a third option rather than a primary scorer. The current three-game under streak extends a pattern of inconsistent offensive output, likely stemming from reduced usage in clutch situations and fewer isolation opportunities. His previous seven-game under streak demonstrates this isn't merely a cold shooting spell but a structural shift in offensive responsibility. The -32.6% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has been consistently fading the inflated lines, while the +23.5% under ROI suggests sustainable value. Without significant injury concerns or usage changes, George's scoring props appear systematically overvalued, particularly when considering his age-related decline in aggressive shot-seeking and the 76ers' emphasis on establishing Embiid and Maxey as primary offensive weapons.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 35.3% over rate and consistent -0.4 scoring differential create systematic value on George's points unders. Target games where he faces length on the perimeter or when Embiid and Maxey are healthy, forcing George into a complementary role. Main risk is a vintage scoring outburst if Philadelphia's other stars sit.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 25.5 | 14.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 22.5 | 22.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 23.5 | 18.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 22.5 | 26.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 22.5 | 22.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 19.5 | 29.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 18.5 | 15.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 20.5 | 18.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-26 | OPP | 22.5 | 21.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 24.5 | 17.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 24.5 | 12.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 23.5 | 16.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 23.5 | 22.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-03 | OPP | 22.5 | 33.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-02 | OPP | 22.5 | 25.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Points Prop Lines
Compare Paul George props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Paul George's Points prop record all games?
Paul George has gone over his points prop in just 6 of 17 games (35.3%) this season, with 11 unders creating a clear pattern of underperformance against his closing lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Paul George Points all games?
Bet under on Paul George's points props. His 35.3% over rate and -0.4 average differential show consistent value, particularly with the +23.5% ROI unders have generated this season.
What's Paul George's average Points all games?
Paul George averages 22.35 points per game compared to his typical 22.79 closing line, creating a -0.4 differential that consistently favors under bettors throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Paul George points unders when Embiid and Maxey are healthy, forcing him into a third-option role. Avoid when he faces weaker perimeter defenses or Philadelphia's stars are injured.