Patrick Williams — 3-Pointers Made Props

Expert Analysis

Williams's enhanced three-point production on one day rest stems from Chicago's tactical adjustments and his improved conditioning with adequate recovery time. The 1.79 average against the standard 1.5 line creates a meaningful 0.29-make cushion, suggesting books haven't fully adjusted to his elevated performance in this rest scenario. His 57.1% over rate across 14 games represents a statistically significant sample that indicates genuine skill rather than random variance. The Bulls likely utilize Williams more aggressively in catch-and-shoot situations when he's properly rested, as fatigue typically impacts shooting mechanics and decision-making first. However, the current three-game under streak raises concerns about recent defensive adjustments or potential regression. Williams's role as a complementary scorer makes him sensitive to game script and opponent defensive schemes. The lack of split data limits our ability to identify optimal matchup conditions, but the overall trend suggests Chicago maximizes his perimeter usage when he's physically prepared. The negative ROI on unders (-18.2%) reinforces the directional bias, though bettors should monitor whether the recent cold streak represents a meaningful shift in his usage patterns or simply natural variance within a profitable long-term trend.

Betting Verdict

LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Williams's 1.79 average creates solid cushion above the typical 1.5 line, and the 57.1% hit rate with +9.1% ROI demonstrates sustainable edge. The current three-game under streak creates potential value as books may overreact, but lack of matchup context prevents higher confidence. Target games where Chicago projects competitive scoring environments.

Game Log (Last 14 Games)

Key Splits