Patrick Williams presents a clear under opportunity with just 42.9% overs across 21 games, generating +9.1% ROI on unders versus -18.2% on overs. His 1.48 average sits right at the 1.5 line, but the distribution heavily favors staying below. The current 3-game under streak reinforces this edge.
Expert Analysis
Williams' three-point struggles stem from his evolving role in Chicago's offense and inconsistent shot selection. Despite averaging 1.48 makes against a 1.5 line, the 42.9% over rate reveals he's hitting two or more threes less frequently than books expect. This isn't simply variance — it reflects Williams' tendency to defer to primary scorers and his streaky shooting mechanics. The Bulls forward has shown he can get hot, evidenced by his 6-game over streak earlier in the sample, but those stretches are outliers rather than the norm. His shot attempts often fluctuate based on game flow and matchup, making consistent three-point production difficult. The current 3-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern of inconsistency beyond the arc. Most concerning for over bettors is Williams' role as a complementary piece rather than a primary three-point threat, meaning his attempts can disappear entirely in certain game scripts. The -18.2% ROI on overs tells the story of a player whose ceiling is real but whose floor is more common, creating a sustainable edge for under backers who understand his limitations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Williams' 42.9% over rate and +9.1% under ROI create a measurable edge, particularly given his role as a secondary option in Chicago's offense. The ideal conditions are games where the Bulls are expected to be competitive, keeping Williams engaged but not forcing excessive three-point attempts. The main risk is his demonstrated ability to get hot for extended stretches, though these periods are historically brief.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Patrick Williams's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Patrick Williams has gone over his Three Pointers Made prop in just 9 of 21 games (42.9%) this season, with 12 unders and no pushes. His under bets have generated a positive 9.1% ROI while overs show an 18.2% loss.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Patrick Williams 3-Pointers Made all games?
Lean under on Patrick Williams Three Pointers Made props. His 42.9% over rate and 1.48 average against a 1.5 line create a measurable edge for under backers, particularly given his inconsistent role in Chicago's offense.
What's Patrick Williams's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Patrick Williams averages 1.48 Three Pointers Made per game across 21 contests, sitting just 0.02 makes below the typical 1.5 line. However, this slight differential masks a significant distribution favoring unders at 57.1%.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams three-point unders in competitive games where Chicago doesn't need to force threes. His complementary role means attempts can disappear in certain game scripts, making unders most valuable when the Bulls aren't chasing points.