Patrick Williams steals props show clear under value with a 42.9% over rate (6-8-0 record) despite averaging 1.0 steals versus the 0.86 line. The +9.1% ROI on unders suggests consistent market mispricing. Lean Under presents the strongest edge.
Expert Analysis
Patrick Williams steals props reveal a fascinating disconnect between production and market perception. While averaging 1.0 steals per game against a 0.86 line suggests the over should hit more frequently, the 42.9% over rate indicates something deeper at play. The -18.2% ROI on overs versus +9.1% on unders points to systematic overvaluation by oddsmakers. Williams operates primarily as a stretch four in Chicago's system, spending significant time on the perimeter defending shooters rather than in passing lanes where steals typically occur. His defensive role emphasizes contesting shots and rebounding over aggressive ball hawking. The 14-game sample shows remarkable consistency in underperformance relative to market expectations, with the longest under streak reaching four games compared to just two for overs. This suggests Williams steals production comes in sporadic bursts rather than sustained periods, making the under a more reliable bet. The current one-game over streak following a longer under pattern fits this boom-bust profile perfectly. Without pace or matchup data to suggest variance, Williams defensive positioning and role within Chicago's scheme appears to be the primary driver keeping his steals below market expectations consistently.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 9.1% ROI on unders combined with Williams' defensive role as a stretch four creates sustainable value. His positioning away from primary ball handlers limits steal opportunities despite solid overall defensive metrics. Best bet when facing teams with strong ball security or when Williams is likely to play significant minutes at power forward.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 14 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Patrick Williams's Steals prop record all games?
Patrick Williams has gone over his steals prop in 6 of 14 games (42.9%) with an 6-8-0 record. He averages 1.0 steals per game against a typical line of 0.86, creating a +0.1 differential that doesn't translate to betting success.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Patrick Williams Steals all games?
Bet under on Patrick Williams steals props. The under has generated 9.1% ROI compared to -18.2% losses on overs. His role as a stretch four limits steal opportunities despite seemingly favorable numbers.
What's Patrick Williams's average Steals all games?
Patrick Williams averages 1.0 steals per game against a 0.86 line, showing a +0.1 differential. However, this apparent edge is misleading as he's hit the over just 42.9% of the time across 14 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Patrick Williams steals unders when he's matched against disciplined offensive teams or when Chicago needs him to play significant power forward minutes. Avoid after extended under streaks of 3+ games when variance correction becomes likely.