Patrick Williams has been a consistent under performer on rebounds with one day rest, going under in 11 of 15 games (73.3% under rate) while averaging 3.2 rebounds against a 4.3 line. The -1.1 differential and devastating -49.1% over ROI make this a clear under lean.
Expert Analysis
Williams' rebounding struggles on one day rest stem from the Bulls' pace-heavy approach and his role as a perimeter-oriented forward. Chicago ranks among the league's fastest teams, creating more possessions but fewer contested rebounds as Williams often trails plays or spaces to the three-point line. His 3.2 rebound average represents a significant 25.6% shortfall from his typical line, suggesting bookmakers haven't fully adjusted to his reduced glass impact in these situations. The eight-game under streak earlier this season demonstrates how consistently Williams fails to meet rebounding expectations when playing with standard rest. His positioning in Chicago's offense prioritizes floor spacing over interior presence, and fatigue from quick turnarounds appears to limit his pursuit of loose balls. The sample size of 15 games provides solid reliability, and the trend shows no signs of recent regression. Williams' rebounding production correlates heavily with his energy levels and defensive positioning, both of which suffer noticeably on one day rest. The Bulls' preference for small-ball lineups in back-to-back situations further reduces his opportunities around the rim.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Williams' 73.3% under rate on one day rest reflects a systematic issue with his rebounding approach in these spots. The -1.1 differential is substantial enough to create consistent value, especially given Chicago's pace and his perimeter role. Risk comes from potential blowouts creating garbage-time opportunities, but his positioning and energy limitations make the under the clear play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-28 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-23 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-20 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Patrick Williams's Rebounds prop record 1 day rest?
Patrick Williams is 4-11 over/under on rebounds props with one day rest, hitting the under in 73.3% of games. He's averaging 3.2 rebounds against a typical 4.3 line, creating a significant -1.1 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Patrick Williams Rebounds 1 day rest?
Bet under on Patrick Williams rebounds with one day rest. His 73.3% under rate and -1.1 average differential create strong value, supported by Chicago's pace and his perimeter role limiting rebounding opportunities in these situations.
What's Patrick Williams's average Rebounds 1 day rest?
Williams averages 3.2 rebounds with one day rest compared to his typical 4.3 line. This -1.1 differential represents a 25.6% shortfall, indicating bookmakers haven't fully adjusted to his reduced rebounding production in these spots.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams rebounds unders specifically on one day rest situations. His energy and positioning suffer most in these spots, while Chicago's fast pace and small-ball tendencies further limit his glass opportunities compared to games with more rest.