Patrick Williams has consistently fallen short of rebounding expectations, hitting overs just 40% of the time over his last 10 games while averaging 3.3 rebounds against a 3.8 line. The persistent 0.5 rebound deficit and strong under ROI of 14.6% signal a clear betting edge toward the under.
Expert Analysis
Patrick Williams's rebounding struggles reflect his evolving role within Chicago's frontcourt rotation and his natural playing style as a perimeter-oriented forward. The 3.3 average against a 3.8 line represents a meaningful 13% shortfall that suggests books haven't properly adjusted to his reduced glass presence. Williams has transformed into more of a floor-spacer and defensive specialist, spending increased time on the perimeter rather than crashing boards. His 4-6 over/under record with a longest under streak of three games indicates this isn't random variance but a systematic shift in his rebounding production. The Bulls' pace and rebounding distribution also factor heavily, as Williams often defers to traditional big men like Nikola Vucevic and Andre Drummond in rebounding situations. His athletic profile suggests he could grab more boards, but his actual usage patterns and positioning consistently leave him short of inflated lines. The -23.6% ROI on overs versus +14.6% on unders creates a substantial betting edge that appears sustainable given his current role and the team's frontcourt dynamics.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Patrick Williams's rebounding props offer solid value on the under side, with his 3.3 average consistently trailing the typical 3.8 line. The 14.6% under ROI and 60% under hit rate over 10 games reflect his reduced glass-crashing role in Chicago's system. Target unders when lines sit at 3.5 or higher, though monitor his minutes and frontcourt rotations for optimal spots.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Patrick Williams's Rebounds prop record last 10 games?
Patrick Williams has gone over his rebounds prop in just 4 of his last 10 games (40% hit rate), producing a 4-6-0 over/under record. This 60% under rate significantly outperforms the typical 52.4% break-even threshold needed for profitable betting.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Patrick Williams Rebounds last 10 games?
Bet under on Patrick Williams rebounds props. His 3.3 average consistently trails typical 3.8 lines, producing 14.6% ROI on unders versus -23.6% losses on overs. The trend appears sustainable given his perimeter-oriented role in Chicago's system.
What's Patrick Williams's average Rebounds last 10 games?
Patrick Williams averages 3.3 rebounds over his last 10 games, falling 0.5 rebounds short of the typical 3.8 line. This 13% deficit represents a meaningful gap that creates consistent value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Patrick Williams rebounds unders when lines are set at 3.5 or higher, particularly in games where Chicago's full frontcourt rotation is healthy. Avoid when Vucevic or other big men are absent, as Williams may see increased interior responsibilities.