Patrick Williams rebounds props at home present a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 18.2% of overs across 11 games with a brutal -1.1 differential from the betting line. Williams averages only 3.36 rebounds per home game against a 4.41 line, creating consistent value on unders.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a stark story about Patrick Williams's rebounding limitations in Chicago's home environment. Averaging 3.36 rebounds against a 4.41 line represents a significant 24% shortfall that suggests either market inefficiency or persistent role constraints at the United Center. Williams's 18.2% over rate across 11 home games indicates this isn't random variance but a systematic pattern tied to Chicago's home game dynamics. The Bulls likely utilize different rotations or face matchups at home that limit Williams's glass opportunities, whether through increased pace that reduces available rebounds or specific defensive schemes that position him away from rebounding lanes. His current three-game under streak, part of a longer four-game under run, demonstrates the consistency of this trend. The -65.3% ROI on overs versus +56.2% on unders creates a clear betting edge that sharp bettors should exploit. What makes this particularly compelling is Williams's role as a forward where rebounding expectations remain elevated, yet the home environment consistently undermines his production. Without road game context for comparison, the home-specific nature of this underperformance suggests venue-related factors that should persist throughout the season.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Patrick Williams's home rebounding props offer consistent value with an 81.8% under hit rate and significant line differential. The -1.1 average shortfall creates a sustainable edge, particularly when the line sits at 4.5 or higher. Primary risk involves potential role expansion or favorable matchups against poor rebounding teams that could temporarily inflate his numbers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-28 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-23 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-20 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 9.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Patrick Williams's Rebounds prop record home games?
Patrick Williams has gone under his rebounds prop in 9 of 11 home games (81.8%), hitting overs just twice for an 18.2% success rate. This represents one of the most lopsided home prop records in the NBA this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Patrick Williams Rebounds home games?
Bet under on Patrick Williams rebounds props at home games. The 81.8% under rate and -1.1 average differential from the line create consistent value, especially when the line exceeds 4.0 rebounds.
What's Patrick Williams's average Rebounds home games?
Patrick Williams averages 3.36 rebounds per home game, falling 1.1 rebounds short of the typical 4.41 betting line. This 24% shortfall represents a significant and exploitable gap between expectation and production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Patrick Williams under props when the line is 4.5 or higher at home games. His consistent underperformance at the United Center, combined with role limitations, creates the strongest betting edge in these elevated line situations.