Patrick Williams presents a compelling under opportunity with just 40.9% overs across 22 games, delivering +12.8% ROI on unders. His 3.95 average falls 0.3 rebounds short of the typical 4.27 line, creating consistent value on the downside.
Expert Analysis
Patrick Williams's rebounding struggles stem from his evolving role in Chicago's frontcourt rotation and inconsistent minutes distribution. The 9-13 over/under record isn't just bad luck—it reflects structural issues with his positioning and usage patterns. Williams often operates on the perimeter in Chicago's offensive system, limiting his proximity to rebounding opportunities compared to traditional power forwards. His 3.95 average against a 4.27 line represents a meaningful 7.5% gap that has persisted across a substantial 22-game sample. The Bulls' pace and rebounding distribution also work against Williams, as Nikola Vucevic and other bigs often dominate the glass. Most concerning for over bettors is the consistency of this underperformance—Williams has hit multiple five-game under streaks, suggesting this isn't variance but a systematic issue with how oddsmakers price his rebounding props. The -21.9% ROI on overs indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to his reduced rebounding impact in his current role. Without significant changes to his usage or the Bulls' system, this trend appears likely to continue rather than regress.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Williams's 40.9% over rate and consistent 0.3 rebound deficit to the line create ongoing value on unders. The structural factors limiting his rebounding—perimeter usage, frontcourt competition, and pace—appear durable rather than temporary. Main risk is potential role expansion or injury-driven opportunity increases, but current usage patterns strongly favor the under.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-28 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-23 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-20 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Patrick Williams's Rebounds prop record all games?
Williams holds a 9-13-0 over/under record across 22 games, hitting just 40.9% overs. This translates to profitable under betting with +12.8% ROI while overs have lost -21.9%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Patrick Williams Rebounds all games?
Bet under on Williams's rebounds. His consistent underperformance against the line (3.95 vs 4.27 average) and structural role limitations create ongoing value on the downside with medium confidence.
What's Patrick Williams's average Rebounds all games?
Williams averages 3.95 rebounds per game, falling 0.3 short of his typical 4.27 line. This 7.5% deficit has persisted across 22 games, indicating systematic underperformance rather than variance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams rebounds unders when lines are set at 4+ rebounds, especially against teams with strong interior presence. His perimeter role and the Bulls' frontcourt depth consistently limit his glass opportunities.