Patrick Williams has hit the over on his points prop just 45.5% of the time across 22 games, going 10-12 while averaging 10.09 points against an 11.0 line. The consistent 0.9-point shortfall and negative ROI on overs creates a clear edge for under bettors.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of a player consistently falling short of market expectations. Williams averages 10.09 points against an 11.0 line, creating a meaningful 0.9-point gap that has persisted across 22 games. This isn't a small sample fluke—it represents nearly a quarter of an NBA season's worth of data showing consistent underperformance relative to betting lines. The 45.5% over rate translates to a -13.2% ROI for over bettors, while under backers have enjoyed a positive 4.1% return. Williams' role as a complementary piece in Chicago's offense appears well-established, limiting his ceiling for explosive scoring nights. The Bulls' offensive hierarchy keeps him in a defined role that rarely demands heavy scoring loads. His current two-game under streak fits the broader pattern, and with the longest under streak reaching six games, there's evidence that when Williams goes cold, he tends to stay cold for extended periods. The market continues to price him as if he's a more consistent scorer than his actual production suggests.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Williams consistently underperforms his 11.0 points line by nearly a full point, creating sustainable value for under bettors. The 4.1% ROI on unders versus -13.2% on overs demonstrates clear market inefficiency. Target this prop when Williams faces strong defensive teams or in games where Chicago projects to struggle offensively. Main risk is a breakout performance that could reset market expectations higher.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 9.5 | 0.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-24 | OPP | 8.5 | 6.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-15 | OPP | 9.5 | 10.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-02 | OPP | 10.5 | 11.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-06 | OPP | 10.5 | 12.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-18 | OPP | 10.5 | 8.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-26 | OPP | 11.5 | 3.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 11.5 | 6.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 8.5 | 5.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-02 | OPP | 13.5 | 3.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-28 | OPP | 14.5 | 22.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-23 | OPP | 12.5 | 13.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-20 | OPP | 12.5 | 15.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-18 | OPP | 10.5 | 13.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Patrick Williams's Points prop record all games?
Patrick Williams has gone 10-12 on his points overs across 22 games, hitting just 45.5% of the time. He's averaging 10.09 points against an 11.0 line, falling short by 0.9 points per game consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Patrick Williams Points all games?
Bet the under on Patrick Williams points. He's consistently underperforming his line by nearly a full point, creating a -13.2% ROI for over bettors while under backers enjoy positive 4.1% returns.
What's Patrick Williams's average Points all games?
Patrick Williams averages 10.09 points per game across 22 games. This falls 0.9 points short of his typical 11.0 betting line, representing consistent underperformance that creates value for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams points unders against strong defensive teams or when Chicago faces tough matchups. His complementary role limits scoring upside, making unders most valuable when the Bulls project to struggle offensively overall.