Pascal Siakam's three-point production shows a clear home advantage, connecting at a 59.1% over rate (13-9-0) across 22 games with a +0.14 differential above typical lines. The +12.8% ROI on overs reflects consistent value in a market that underprices his home court shooting comfort. Lean Over with medium conviction.
Expert Analysis
Siakam's home three-point advantage stems from Indiana's pace-up style and his comfort level in familiar surroundings. Averaging 1.23 makes per home game versus a typical 1.09 line creates consistent value, though the modest differential requires careful line shopping. The 59.1% over rate isn't overwhelming but represents sustainable edge given Siakam's role as a secondary creator who benefits from open looks generated by Tyrese Haliburton's playmaking. Indiana's home offensive efficiency creates more quality three-point opportunities, particularly in transition where Siakam thrives. The concerning element is the recent single-game under streak, though this follows a six-game over run that demonstrates the trend's volatility. Books appear slow to adjust lines fully for home/road splits, creating ongoing value. Siakam's three-point volume remains consistent regardless of game flow, as Rick Carlisle's system emphasizes spacing. The key risk is regression to his career road averages, but Indiana's home court advantage in offensive rhythm suggests this edge persists. Monitor for line adjustments above 1.5, where value diminishes significantly.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Siakam's 1.23 home average versus typical 1.09 lines creates consistent value, supported by Indiana's pace and spacing advantages at home. Target lines at 1.5 or below for maximum value, as the +0.14 differential provides steady edge. Main risk is books catching up to the split, but current pricing suggests continued opportunity.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
Compare Pascal Siakam props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Pascal Siakam's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Pascal Siakam's three-point prop record in home games stands at 13-9-0 over/under, hitting the over 59.1% of the time across 22 games. This translates to a solid +12.8% ROI on over bets versus -21.9% on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Pascal Siakam 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet the over on Pascal Siakam's three-point props at home games. His 1.23 average significantly exceeds typical 1.09 lines, creating consistent value. Target lines at 1.5 or below for maximum edge in this favorable split.
What's Pascal Siakam's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Pascal Siakam averages 1.23 three-pointers made per home game, compared to typical betting lines around 1.09. This +0.14 differential above market expectations creates the foundation for profitable over betting with proper line selection.
How reliable is this trend?
Best opportunities arise when lines stay at 1.5 or below, maximizing the value from Siakam's 1.23 home average. Target games following rest days when Indiana's pace typically increases, creating additional three-point volume for Siakam.