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5-12 O/U Record
29.4% Over Rate
-7.5u Units Won
-43.9% ROI
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Pascal Siakam's blocks prop at home presents a compelling under opportunity with a 29.4% over rate across 17 games. His 0.35 average falls 0.15 blocks short of the typical 0.5 line, generating a strong 34.8% ROI on unders. The data strongly favors betting under on Siakam's blocks in home games.

Expert Analysis

Pascal Siakam's transition from Toronto to Indiana has fundamentally altered his defensive role, and the home environment data reveals this shift most clearly. His 0.35 blocks per game at home represents a significant departure from his more aggressive shot-blocking seasons, reflecting Indiana's defensive scheme that positions him more as a help defender than a primary rim protector. The Pacers' uptempo style at Gainbridge Fieldhouse creates more transition opportunities where Siakam operates in space rather than camping near the basket for blocks. His 29.4% over rate isn't just poor luck—it's systematic. Indiana's home court advantage often comes from offensive pace rather than defensive intensity, meaning Siakam spends more possessions in pick-and-roll coverage and perimeter switches where blocks are scarce. The current three-game under streak aligns with this broader pattern, and his longest under streak of four games suggests books haven't fully adjusted the line to reflect his reduced shot-blocking role. With only one consecutive over game as his longest streak, the volatility heavily favors the under. The -43.9% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has already identified this edge, while the 34.8% under ROI demonstrates consistent profitability for disciplined bettors.

Betting Verdict

LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Pascal Siakam's blocks prop at home offers solid value with his 0.35 average consistently falling short of standard lines. The 34.8% under ROI and 70.6% under rate create a sustainable edge, particularly when Indiana plays their preferred fast-paced style at home. The main risk involves potential defensive adjustments or matchups against paint-heavy opponents, but the systemic factors favor continued under performance.

5 OVERS (29.4%)
12 UNDERS
0% 50% breakeven 100%

Performance vs Line

Game Log (Last 15 Games)

Date Opp Line Actual +/- Result
2024-04-14 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-04-05 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-04-01 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-03-29 OPP 0.5 1.0 +0.5 OVER
2024-03-18 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-03-16 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-03-13 OPP 0.5 2.0 +1.5 OVER
2024-03-07 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-02-26 OPP 0.5 1.0 +0.5 OVER
2024-02-25 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-02-22 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-02-08 OPP 0.5 1.0 +0.5 OVER
2024-02-06 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-01-28 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-01-26 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER

Key Splits

Home vs Away

Home 29.4% Over
Away 50.0% Over

Favorite vs Underdog

Favorite 50.0% Over
Underdog 50.0% Over

Recent Trend

Last 5 20.0% Over
Last 10 30.0% Over

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is Pascal Siakam's Blocks prop record home games?

Pascal Siakam has gone under his blocks prop in 12 of 17 home games (70.6% under rate) with a 5-12-0 record. His 0.35 average at home consistently falls short of the standard 0.5 line, creating a -0.15 differential that favors under bets.

Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Pascal Siakam Blocks home games?

Bet under on Pascal Siakam's blocks at home games. His 29.4% over rate and 34.8% under ROI provide a clear edge, especially with Indiana's fast-paced home style limiting his rim protection opportunities compared to his previous defensive roles.

What's Pascal Siakam's average Blocks home games?

Pascal Siakam averages 0.35 blocks per game at home, which is 0.15 blocks below the typical 0.5 line. This consistent shortfall has produced a 70.6% under rate across 17 games, indicating the line hasn't adjusted to his reduced shot-blocking role.

How reliable is this trend?

Target Pascal Siakam blocks unders when Indiana plays at home against teams that prefer perimeter offense or in faster-paced games. His role in the Pacers' system limits rim protection opportunities, making home games particularly favorable for under bets given their uptempo style.

Methodology: This analysis covers 17 games from 2023-11-22 to 2024-04-14. O/U results use closing prop lines. ROI assumes -110 juice. Pushes excluded from percentages.