Pascal Siakam has been a brutal assist prop bet, hitting the over in just 4 of 10 games (40.0%) with a devastating -23.6% ROI on overs. His 2.9 assists per game falls 0.2 short of the typical 3.1 line, creating consistent value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
Siakam's assist struggles reflect his evolving role with the Indiana Pacers, where he's operating more as a secondary scorer rather than a primary facilitator. The 2.9 assists per game represents a significant drop from his Toronto days when he regularly flirted with 5+ assists as the primary ball handler. In Indiana's system, Tyrese Haliburton commands the offense, relegating Siakam to more catch-and-shoot situations and post-ups that don't generate assists. The consistency of this trend is striking - even when Siakam plays well offensively, he's not racking up assists at the rate books expect. His current streak of two straight unders suggests this isn't just variance but a fundamental shift in how he's being utilized. The -0.2 differential between his average and the line might seem small, but it's been remarkably persistent across different game situations. Books appear slow to adjust to Siakam's reduced playmaking role, creating a sustainable edge for under bettors. The 14.6% ROI on unders validates this approach, though bettors should monitor for any lineup changes that might increase his ball-handling responsibilities.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Siakam's reduced playmaking role in Indiana's system has created a persistent gap between his actual production (2.9) and market expectations (3.1). The 60% under rate and positive ROI suggest books haven't fully adjusted to his new role. Target this when he's facing teams that limit transition opportunities or when Haliburton is healthy and commanding the offense.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Pascal Siakam's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Pascal Siakam has gone over his assists prop in just 4 of his last 10 games (40.0% rate), going under 6 times. His longest over streak was 2 games, while his longest under streak reached 3 games, with 2 straight unders currently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Pascal Siakam Assists last 10 games?
Lean under on Pascal Siakam assists props. He's averaging 2.9 assists versus a typical 3.1 line, hitting unders 60% of the time with a positive 14.6% ROI. His reduced playmaking role in Indiana creates consistent value on the under side.
What's Pascal Siakam's average Assists last 10 games?
Pascal Siakam is averaging 2.9 assists per game over his last 10 contests, falling 0.2 short of the typical 3.1 line. This consistent gap reflects his secondary role in Indiana's offense compared to his Toronto days as primary facilitator.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Siakam assist unders when Tyrese Haliburton is healthy and running the offense, or against teams that limit transition opportunities. Avoid when key Pacers playmakers are injured, as Siakam may revert to more ball-handling responsibilities in those situations.