Pascal Siakam's assists props present a clear under opportunity with just 46.3% overs across 54 games and a -11.6% ROI on overs. His 3.93 average barely exceeds the typical 3.81 line, creating consistent value on unders with +2.5% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Siakam's assist production reflects his role evolution in Indiana's system, where he operates more as a primary scorer than the playmaking hub he was in Toronto. The 25-29 over/under record tells a story of books consistently overvaluing his passing output relative to his actual usage patterns. His 3.93 average represents a marginal edge over the standard 3.81 line, but this small differential masks significant variance that favors under bettors. The negative ROI on overs (-11.6%) suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to Siakam's reduced playmaking responsibilities alongside Tyrese Haliburton, who commands primary ball-handling duties. Indiana's pace and offensive system prioritize Siakam's scoring efficiency over assist generation, creating a structural mismatch between perception and reality. The current two-game under streak aligns with this broader pattern, though streaks of four games in either direction show the variance inherent in assist props. Without significant injury concerns to Haliburton or major system changes, Siakam's assist production should continue trending toward the lower end of market expectations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 46.3% over rate combined with positive under ROI creates a sustainable edge, though the modest 0.12 average differential limits conviction. Target spots where Siakam faces elite perimeter defenders who force him into scoring mode rather than facilitating. Primary risk involves Haliburton injury scenarios that could elevate Siakam's playmaking responsibilities unexpectedly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
Compare Pascal Siakam props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Pascal Siakam's Assists prop record all games?
Siakam's assists props show a 25-29 over/under record across 54 games, hitting overs just 46.3% of the time. This represents a clear pattern of underperformance relative to market expectations with consistent value on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Pascal Siakam Assists all games?
Bet under on Siakam's assists props. The 46.3% over rate and +2.5% under ROI create a sustainable edge, especially when he faces elite defenders who force him into scoring mode rather than facilitating.
What's Pascal Siakam's average Assists all games?
Siakam averages 3.93 assists per game compared to the typical 3.81 line, creating just a 0.12 differential. This marginal edge over the betting line explains why overs hit less than half the time.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Siakam assist unders when he faces elite perimeter defenders or in games where Indiana's pace is expected to be slower. Avoid betting when Haliburton is questionable, as increased playmaking duties could boost assists.