Obi Toppin's three-point volume has cratered over his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time while averaging 1.2 makes against a 1.5 line. The under has delivered a solid 14.6% ROI, making it the clear value play until his shot selection normalizes.
Expert Analysis
Toppin's three-point struggles stem from a fundamental shift in his offensive role within Indiana's system. The 1.2 average against a 1.5 line represents a meaningful 20% shortfall that suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his reduced perimeter usage. This isn't simply a shooting slump—it's a usage pattern change that creates sustainable value on the under. The 60% under rate with positive ROI indicates the market is slow to recognize Toppin's decreased three-point attempts per game. His role as a complementary big man in Indiana's rotation limits his opportunities for high-volume shooting nights, particularly when the Pacers emphasize interior scoring through their primary offensive weapons. The longest under streak of three games demonstrates the consistency of this trend, while the brief two-game over streak appears to be the exception rather than the rule. Without significant changes to his role or the team's offensive philosophy, this pattern should persist. The -23.6% ROI on overs serves as a clear warning against betting the over, while the under's profitability reflects a genuine market inefficiency that sharp bettors can exploit.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Toppin's reduced three-point volume in Indiana's system creates consistent value on the under, evidenced by the 14.6% ROI and 60% hit rate. The 0.3 make differential below the line suggests sustainable edge. Primary risk is a sudden role expansion or hot shooting variance, but his current usage pattern favors continued under performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Obi Toppin's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Toppin has gone 4-6-0 on his three-pointers made over/under in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. He's averaging 1.2 makes against a typical 1.5 line, creating a -0.3 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Obi Toppin 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Bet the under on Toppin's three-pointers made props. The under has delivered 14.6% ROI with a 60% hit rate over 10 games, while his 1.2 average sits consistently below the standard 1.5 line, creating sustainable value.
What's Obi Toppin's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Toppin is averaging 1.2 three-pointers made over his last 10 games, which sits 0.3 makes below the typical 1.5 line. This 20% shortfall from market expectations represents the core value proposition for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Toppin's three-point unders when he's in his standard complementary role and the Pacers emphasize interior scoring. Avoid betting when he's expected to see expanded minutes or against pace-up matchups that could inflate his attempt volume.