Nikola Vučević has been a consistent over performer on his three-pointers made prop at home, hitting 20-16-0 (55.6%) with a solid +0.2 differential above the typical 1.17 line. The Bulls center averages 1.33 makes per home game, generating +6.1% ROI on overs. This represents a clear lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Vučević's home three-point success stems from Chicago's offensive system that maximizes his floor-spacing role at the United Center. The 55.6% over rate across 36 games indicates genuine skill rather than variance, as centers typically struggle with three-point consistency. His 1.33 average against a 1.17 line shows books haven't fully adjusted to his improved perimeter shooting. The Bulls utilize Vučević more aggressively as a pick-and-pop threat at home, where crowd energy and familiar sight lines boost his confidence. The +6.1% ROI on overs demonstrates sustainable value, while the brutal -15.2% under ROI warns against fading this trend. His longest over streak of five games shows he can get hot, while the modest three-game under streak suggests he rarely goes completely cold. The lack of significant regression over this large sample indicates this isn't a fluke but rather a reflection of his evolved offensive role. Chicago's pace and offensive philosophy create consistent three-point opportunities for Vučević, particularly in the comfortable confines of home games where he's clearly more aggressive from beyond the arc.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Vučević's 55.6% over rate and +0.2 differential above the line represents genuine value that books haven't fully corrected. The ideal conditions are games where Chicago faces up-tempo opponents or when the Bulls need to match offensive firepower. The main risk is his center position making him inherently volatile on threes, but his 36-game sample size and consistent role minimize this concern.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nikola Vučević's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Nikola Vučević has gone over his three-pointers made prop in 20 of 36 home games (55.6%) while going under 16 times. This 20-16-0 record shows consistent over performance with no pushes, averaging 1.33 makes per game at the United Center.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nikola Vučević 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet over on Nikola Vučević's three-pointers made props at home games. His 55.6% over rate and +0.2 differential above the line creates value, especially with the +6.1% ROI demonstrating sustainable profit potential over time.
What's Nikola Vučević's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Nikola Vučević averages 1.33 three-pointers made in home games, which is 0.16 points above his typical 1.17 line. This differential represents the core value in consistently backing overs on his three-point props at the United Center.
How reliable is this trend?
The best time to bet Vučević's three-point props is during home games against up-tempo opponents or when Chicago needs to match offensive firepower. His comfort level and aggressive shot selection at the United Center creates the most favorable conditions.