Nikola Jokić's three-pointers made prop offers minimal edge with a 50.7% over rate across 73 games, averaging 1.11 makes against typical 0.95 lines. The negative ROI on both sides (-3.2% over, -5.8% under) suggests efficient market pricing. LEAN OVER based purely on the modest statistical advantage.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a fascinating case study in market efficiency around Nikola Jokić's three-point shooting props. His 1.11 average against 0.95 lines creates a theoretical edge, but the reality proves more nuanced. The 50.7% over rate sits just above the breakeven threshold, yet both sides show negative ROI, indicating juice is eating profits despite seemingly favorable numbers. Jokić's three-point shooting represents the evolution of his game - from reluctant shooter to willing participant in Denver's offense. His attempts fluctuate based on game flow, opponent defensive schemes, and whether Denver needs his floor spacing. The six-game streaks in both directions highlight the volatility inherent in low-volume shooting props. Unlike high-usage scorers, Jokić's three-point attempts depend heavily on situational factors rather than predetermined shot diet. The market has clearly adjusted to his improved shooting, with books setting lines that account for his selective but effective approach. This creates a scenario where raw averages suggest value, but the betting reality reflects the unpredictable nature of when Jokić decides to let it fly from deep.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with LOW confidence. The 1.11 average versus 0.95 typical lines provides mathematical support, but the negative ROI warns against aggressive betting. Target games where Denver faces pace-up opponents or trailing situations that might encourage Jokić's three-point shooting. The main risk lies in his selective shooting approach - he'll pass up open looks if better options exist, making this prop highly game-script dependent.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
Compare Nikola Jokić props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nikola Jokić's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Nikola Jokić has gone over his three-pointers made prop in 37 of 73 games (50.7%), averaging 1.11 makes per game. His record shows 37 overs, 36 unders, with no pushes across the full season sample.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nikola Jokić 3-Pointers Made all games?
Lean over on Jokić's three-pointers made props with low confidence. His 1.11 average beats typical 0.95 lines, but negative ROI on both sides suggests the market prices this efficiently. Bet selectively in favorable game scripts.
What's Nikola Jokić's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Jokić averages 1.11 three-pointers made per game compared to his typical 0.95 prop line, creating a +0.16 differential. This modest edge translates to a 50.7% over rate across 73 games, just above the breakeven threshold.
How reliable is this trend?
Target games where Denver faces pace-up opponents or high-scoring affairs that encourage Jokić's shooting. Avoid back-to-backs or games where Denver leads big early, as he tends to defer to teammates in comfortable situations.