Nick Richards shows concerning under performance on one day rest, hitting over just 43.5% of the time across 23 games with a brutal -17.0% ROI on overs. His 10.3 average falls short of the typical 10.76 line, creating consistent value on unders.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a clear pattern of Richards struggling to reach his scoring props after minimal rest. His 10.3 points per game average on one day rest sits 0.5 points below the standard line, which might seem marginal but proves significant over 23 games. The 43.5% over rate combined with the devastating -17.0% ROI on overs tells a story of a player whose conditioning or role changes impact his offensive output when games come in quick succession. Charlotte's pace and rotation decisions likely play a role here, as Richards may see reduced minutes or less aggressive offensive looks when the team prioritizes veteran players in back-to-back situations. The current streak of one under aligns with the broader trend, though his longest under streak reached five games, suggesting this isn't just random variance. The +7.9% under ROI provides a meaningful edge, especially when considering that most casual bettors gravitate toward overs on big men's scoring props. Richards' role as a traditional center means his scoring often depends on specific game flow and matchup factors that become less favorable in compressed scheduling scenarios.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 56.5% under rate combined with positive ROI creates a sustainable edge against inflated lines. Richards consistently underperforms his props on one day rest, likely due to reduced minutes or energy in compressed schedules. The main risk is Charlotte's potential lineup changes or a particularly favorable matchup, but the data strongly supports targeting unders in these rest situations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 9.5 | 8.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 8.5 | 12.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 9.5 | 11.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 9.5 | 11.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 9.5 | 2.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 10.5 | 8.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 12.5 | 10.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 9.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 10.5 | 6.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 10.5 | 21.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 12.5 | 12.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 11.5 | 13.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 12.5 | 16.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 12.5 | 5.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 11.5 | 12.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nick Richards's Points prop record 1 day rest?
Nick Richards goes under his points prop 56.5% of the time on one day rest, posting a 10-13 over/under record across 23 games. His under performance has generated a positive 7.9% ROI for bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nick Richards Points 1 day rest?
Bet under on Nick Richards points props when he has one day rest. The data shows consistent under performance with positive ROI, making unders the clear value play in these scheduling situations.
What's Nick Richards's average Points 1 day rest?
Nick Richards averages 10.3 points on one day rest compared to typical lines around 10.76. This 0.5-point gap consistently creates value on under bets across his 23-game sample size.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Nick Richards under props specifically on one day rest situations where he shows clear fatigue patterns. Avoid overs in compressed schedules, as his -17.0% ROI on overs demonstrates consistent line inflation.