Myles Turner's steals production has cratered over his last 10 games, hitting the over just 30% of the time while averaging 0.3 steals against a typical 0.5 line. The under has delivered a robust 33.6% ROI, making it the clear value play.
Expert Analysis
Turner's defensive profile shift explains this stark underperformance in steals. As Indiana's primary rim protector, Turner has increasingly focused on paint protection rather than perimeter disruption, evidenced by his meager 0.3 steals per game average. Big men naturally generate fewer steals than guards or wings due to positioning and defensive responsibilities, and Turner's role anchoring the Pacers' interior defense keeps him away from passing lanes where steals typically occur. The consistency is striking—Turner has failed to reach 0.5 steals in seven of his last 10 games, including a current three-game under streak. This isn't variance or bad luck; it's systematic underproduction based on his defensive assignment. The 0.5 line appears to be set too high for a center whose primary job is deterring shots at the rim, not intercepting passes. Turner's 2.4 blocks per game during this stretch confirms he's excelling in his actual role while the steals prop remains artificially inflated. The -42.7% ROI on overs tells the complete story—this line consistently overestimates Turner's steal production based on outdated expectations rather than current defensive reality.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Turner's role as a rim protector fundamentally limits his steal opportunities, and the 0.5 line fails to account for this positional reality. Target this prop when the line remains at 0.5 or higher, particularly in games where Indiana faces teams that attack the paint frequently, keeping Turner anchored near the basket. The main risk is a blowout scenario forcing Turner into extended garbage time where defensive positioning becomes less structured.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Myles Turner's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Turner has gone 3-7-0 over/under on steals props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 30% of the time. He's averaging 0.3 steals per game against typical 0.5 lines, creating a -0.2 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Myles Turner Steals last 10 games?
Bet the under on Turner's steals props. His 0.3 average is well below standard 0.5 lines, and the under has produced a 33.6% ROI. His rim protection role naturally limits steal opportunities compared to perimeter defenders.
What's Myles Turner's average Steals last 10 games?
Turner is averaging 0.3 steals per game over his last 10 contests, falling 0.2 steals short of the typical 0.5 line. This represents a significant underperformance that reflects his defensive positioning rather than poor form.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Turner steals unders when lines are set at 0.5 or higher, especially against teams that attack the paint frequently. These matchups keep Turner anchored near the rim, further limiting his opportunities for perimeter steals and deflections.