Myles Turner shows marginal over value at home with a 52.5% over rate (21-19-0) and averaging 1.4 points above typical lines. The Pacers center is currently riding a six-game over streak, though the minimal 0.2% ROI suggests this edge is razor-thin and requires selective timing.
Expert Analysis
Turner's home scoring advantage stems from Indiana's uptempo pace at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, where the Pacers average 101.2 possessions per game compared to 98.7 on the road. The center benefits from familiar rim positioning and consistent offensive rhythm in his home environment, leading to more efficient shot selection and increased touches in the paint. His 17.98 home average reflects steady production rather than explosive upside, as Turner operates within Indiana's balanced offensive system where he rarely needs to carry the scoring load. The current six-game over streak indicates Turner has found consistent rhythm, but this type of streak often precedes regression to the mean. The negligible 0.2% ROI over suggests books have adjusted lines effectively, making this a marginal edge that requires specific game conditions to exploit. Turner's home scoring consistency makes him less volatile than many centers, but also caps his ceiling when facing elite interior defenses. The -9.3% under ROI indicates betting unders has been costly, though this could shift if Turner hits a cold stretch or faces defensive-minded opponents who can limit his paint touches.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Turner's 1.4-point home edge and current hot streak create modest value, particularly when Indiana faces pace-up spots or defensively weak frontcourts. Target games where the Pacers project for 105+ possessions and Turner faces centers who struggle with rim protection. Main risk is regression from his current streak and books potentially adjusting lines higher.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-04 | OPP | 15.5 | 26.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 14.5 | 15.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 15.5 | 23.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 16.5 | 26.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 16.5 | 31.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 15.5 | 16.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 14.5 | 9.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 15.5 | 10.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 16.5 | 12.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 16.5 | 11.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 16.5 | 27.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 16.5 | 12.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 19.5 | 14.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-26 | OPP | 17.5 | 16.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 17.5 | 33.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Myles Turner's Points prop record home games?
Turner has gone over his points prop in 21 of 40 home games (52.5%) while going under 19 times. He's currently on a six-game over streak at home, matching his season-long high for consecutive overs in any venue.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Myles Turner Points home games?
Lean over on Turner's home points props, but be selective. His 1.4-point average edge and current hot streak provide modest value, especially in pace-up spots against weak interior defenses where Indiana projects for high possessions.
What's Myles Turner's average Points home games?
Turner averages 17.98 points in home games, which is 1.4 points higher than his typical prop lines. This consistent edge reflects his improved efficiency and rhythm when playing at Gainbridge Fieldhouse compared to road venues.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Turner overs when Indiana faces defensively weak frontcourts in projected high-pace games. Avoid when he faces elite rim protectors or in back-to-back situations where his minutes and energy might be managed by the coaching staff.