Mitchell Robinson's rebounds prop shows a perfectly balanced 9-9 record with 50% overs, but his 10.56 average creates a meaningful +1.1 edge over the typical 9.5 line. The current 4-game under streak represents regression after strong early-season rebounding, suggesting value on the over.
Expert Analysis
Robinson's rebounding profile reveals a classic case of market inefficiency disguised as balance. While the 50% over rate appears neutral, his 10.56 average consistently outpacing the 9.5 line indicates the market hasn't properly adjusted to his expanded role. The Knicks' improved pace under Tom Thibodeau creates more rebounding opportunities, and Robinson's 7-foot frame with elite athleticism positions him perfectly to capitalize. The current 4-game under streak likely reflects natural variance rather than declining ability, as his minutes and usage remain stable. His rebounding rate per 36 minutes stays consistent with career norms, suggesting the recent dip is temporary. The key concern lies in foul trouble, which has historically limited Robinson's floor time, but his improved discipline this season reduces that risk. When healthy and avoiding early foul trouble, Robinson consistently approaches double-digit rebounds. The market's reluctance to move the line higher despite his consistent production creates ongoing value for sharp bettors willing to back the numbers over recent results.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Robinson's 10.56 average provides consistent value against the standard 9.5 line, and the current 4-game under streak creates enhanced value through regression potential. Target games where he's rested and avoiding early foul trouble. The main risk remains his foul-prone nature limiting minutes, but improved discipline this season mitigates that concern significantly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-08 | OPP | 9.5 | 8.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-05 | OPP | 9.5 | 4.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-30 | OPP | 9.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-28 | OPP | 10.5 | 10.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 9.5 | 11.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-20 | OPP | 8.5 | 11.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-17 | OPP | 11.5 | 8.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-15 | OPP | 9.5 | 15.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-13 | OPP | 9.5 | 6.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 11.5 | 9.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-08 | OPP | 11.5 | 12.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-06 | OPP | 9.5 | 15.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-03 | OPP | 8.5 | 15.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-01 | OPP | 9.5 | 16.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-31 | OPP | 9.5 | 7.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mitchell Robinson's Rebounds prop record all games?
Mitchell Robinson holds a perfectly balanced 9-9 record on rebounds props across 18 games, hitting the over exactly 50% of the time with neutral -4.5% ROI on both sides.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mitchell Robinson Rebounds all games?
Lean over on Robinson's rebounds props. His 10.56 average consistently beats the 9.5 line, and the current 4-game under streak creates regression value despite the balanced overall record.
What's Mitchell Robinson's average Rebounds all games?
Robinson averages 10.56 rebounds per game this season, creating a valuable +1.1 differential above the standard 9.5 line that the market typically sets for his props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Robinson rebounds overs when he's well-rested and the Knicks face teams that play at faster pace, maximizing total rebounding opportunities while minimizing foul trouble risk.