Mike Conley has delivered consistent three-point value over his last 10 games, hitting the over at a 60% clip with a 6-4-0 record. His 2.2 average significantly exceeds the typical 1.6 line, creating a +0.6 differential that translates to +14.6% ROI on overs. This represents a clear lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Mike Conley's three-point surge reflects his evolved role in Minnesota's offensive system, where he's functioning as both a floor general and secondary scorer. The 2.2 average against a 1.6 line reveals books haven't fully adjusted to his increased volume and improved shot selection. Conley's veteran savvy shows in his shot distribution—he's picking his spots more carefully while maintaining the confidence to fire when open. The 60% over rate isn't just random variance; it's supported by Minnesota's pace of play and their need for perimeter spacing around their frontcourt. The +14.6% ROI on overs demonstrates genuine market inefficiency, particularly impressive given Conley's reputation as a steady, predictable player. However, the limited sample size and his age-related consistency concerns present regression risks. The alternating streak pattern (longest runs of just 2 games either way) suggests he's finding a sustainable rhythm rather than riding unsustainable hot shooting. His three-point attempts have remained steady, indicating this isn't just a volume-driven spike but improved efficiency within his established role.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Conley's 2.2 average creating a +0.6 cushion above typical lines represents genuine value, especially with books slow to adjust to his enhanced role. Target overs when Minnesota faces pace-up spots or when Conley's line sits at 1.5 or lower. Primary risk is age-related shooting variance and potential load management as the season progresses, but the underlying usage supports continued over performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mike Conley's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Mike Conley has gone over his three-pointers made prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% rate) with a 6-4-0 record. He's averaging 2.2 makes compared to the typical 1.6 line, creating consistent value for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mike Conley 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Bet the over on Mike Conley's three-pointers made props. His 2.2 average significantly exceeds typical 1.6 lines, creating a +0.6 differential with +14.6% ROI. The 60% over rate reflects genuine value, not just variance.
What's Mike Conley's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Mike Conley is averaging 2.2 three-pointers made over his last 10 games, which is 0.6 makes above the typical 1.6 line. This substantial differential has generated +14.6% ROI for over bettors during this stretch.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mike Conley three-point overs when his line is set at 1.5 or lower, particularly in pace-up matchups where Minnesota needs perimeter spacing. Avoid during potential rest situations or back-to-back games where load management could limit his minutes.