Mike Conley's points props have been profitable on the under, hitting just 40% overs across his last 10 games while averaging 9.4 points against an 8.7 line. The veteran guard's modest +0.7 differential masks underlying scoring inconsistency that favors under betting with a solid 14.6% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Conley's recent scoring pattern reveals a player whose offensive role has stabilized at a lower threshold than books are pricing. While his 9.4 average technically beats the 8.7 line, the 40% over rate tells the real story—he's hitting double digits sporadically rather than consistently. This disconnect stems from Minnesota's depth and Conley's evolving role as a floor general who prioritizes playmaking over scoring. The veteran's shot selection has become increasingly selective, often deferring to younger teammates in crucial scoring situations. His current streak of two consecutive overs might seem concerning for under bettors, but it represents typical variance rather than a fundamental shift. The underlying factors driving his reduced scoring—increased assist focus, limited minutes in blowouts, and a more conservative offensive approach—remain intact. Books appear slow to adjust to this new reality, consistently setting lines that overvalue his scoring ceiling. The negative ROI on overs (-23.6%) reinforces that his occasional explosive games are outliers rather than indicators of sustained scoring uptick.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Conley's 40% over rate and strong under ROI indicate books are overvaluing his scoring consistency. The veteran's evolved role prioritizes facilitating over scoring, creating sustainable value on unders. Primary risk lies in potential blowout games where garbage time could inflate his numbers, but his disciplined approach typically limits such scenarios.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-01 | OPP | 8.5 | 9.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-30 | OPP | 7.5 | 17.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-24 | OPP | 7.5 | 7.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-12 | OPP | 8.5 | 8.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-06 | OPP | 8.5 | 16.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-25 | OPP | 10.5 | 9.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-20 | OPP | 9.5 | 5.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 8.5 | 9.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 8.5 | 5.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 9.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mike Conley's Points prop record last 10 games?
Conley has gone over his points prop in just 4 of his last 10 games (40% rate) with a 4-6-0 record. He's averaging 9.4 points against an average line of 8.7, showing modest scoring but poor over consistency.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mike Conley Points last 10 games?
Bet the under on Conley's points props. His 40% over rate and 14.6% under ROI indicate books are overvaluing his scoring consistency. His evolved playmaking role creates sustainable value on the under despite the modest average differential.
What's Mike Conley's average Points last 10 games?
Conley is averaging 9.4 points over his last 10 games against an average line of 8.7, creating a +0.7 differential. However, his 40% over rate shows this average is misleading for betting purposes.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Conley under props when he's facing strong perimeter defenses or in games with tight spreads where his facilitating role takes precedence. Avoid unders in potential blowouts where garbage time could inflate his scoring.