Michael Porter Jr.'s three-pointers made prop shows clear under value with just 41.7% overs across 60 games. The market has perfectly priced his 2.58 average against the 2.6 line, but the under delivers +11.4% ROI versus -20.4% for overs. This represents a sustainable edge favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers reveal a fascinating market inefficiency around Michael Porter Jr.'s three-point shooting props. Despite averaging 2.58 makes against a 2.6 line—essentially dead-on pricing—the distribution heavily favors under outcomes at 58.3%. This suggests Porter Jr. operates in a boom-bust pattern where his ceiling games (4+ makes) are offset by more frequent modest performances. The current three-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern, where his longest over streak reached just three games compared to four consecutive unders. Porter Jr.'s role as Denver's third option creates inherent volatility—when Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray dominate possessions, his three-point attempts naturally decrease. The Nuggets' methodical pace (98.9 possessions per game, 20th in NBA) limits overall shot volume, making it challenging for Porter Jr. to consistently reach higher attempt totals needed for over outcomes. His 37.8% three-point percentage is solid but not elite enough to overcome volume constraints. The market appears to overvalue his ceiling performances while underweighting his floor games, creating sustainable under value.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 58.3% under rate combined with +11.4% ROI creates a measurable edge, though the small line differential (0.02) limits upside. Target games where Denver faces elite defenses or plays at slower paces, as these conditions typically reduce Porter Jr.'s three-point volume. The main risk is his explosive ceiling—Porter Jr. can easily hit 5+ threes in pace-up spots, making selective game selection crucial for maximizing this trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Michael Porter Jr.'s 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Michael Porter Jr.'s three-pointers made prop record shows 25 overs and 35 unders across 60 games, hitting the under 58.3% of the time. This translates to a -20.4% ROI on over bets versus +11.4% on under wagers.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Michael Porter Jr. 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet the under on Michael Porter Jr.'s three-pointers made props. The 58.3% under rate and +11.4% ROI provide a clear mathematical edge, especially given his boom-bust shooting pattern and Denver's pace constraints limiting overall volume.
What's Michael Porter Jr.'s average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Michael Porter Jr. averages 2.58 three-pointers made per game against a typical 2.6 line, creating just a -0.02 differential. Despite this tight pricing, the under hits 58.3% of the time, indicating favorable distribution for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Porter Jr. three-point unders when Denver faces elite defenses or plays at slower paces. His volume decreases when Jokic and Murray dominate possessions, making defensive matchups and pace-down spots ideal for under bets.