Max Strus has quietly become one of the most reliable steal prop overs in the NBA, hitting at a 62.9% clip across 35 games with a massive +0.4 differential above the typical 0.5 line. The Cleveland wing's defensive positioning and gambling instincts have generated consistent value, making this a lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Strus's steal production stems from his role as Cleveland's primary wing defender tasked with disrupting passing lanes. His 0.94 steals per game average significantly outpaces the standard 0.5 line, creating inherent value that books haven't fully adjusted for. The 62.9% over rate isn't fluky—it reflects his defensive assignment against opposing wings and guards where steal opportunities naturally occur. Strus plays with controlled aggression, timing his gambles well rather than recklessly reaching. His 6-game over streak demonstrates the sustainability of this production, while the longest under streak being just 2 games shows remarkable consistency. The +20.0% ROI on overs versus -29.1% on unders creates a clear mathematical edge. Cleveland's pace and defensive scheme, which encourages active hands in passing lanes, supports this trend's continuation. The main concern is potential regression to league averages, but Strus's role and skill set suggest this isn't random variance. His defensive responsibilities haven't changed significantly, and his steal rate aligns with his career tendencies when given consistent minutes.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Strus's 0.94 average against a 0.5 line creates substantial value, supported by his defensive role and consistent execution. The 62.9% hit rate over 35 games provides a solid sample size. Best played when Cleveland faces pace-up opponents or teams prone to turnovers. Main risk is potential line adjustment as books recognize this trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Max Strus's Steals prop record all games?
Max Strus has gone over his steals prop in 22 of 35 games (62.9%) with a 22-13-0 record. He averages 0.94 steals per game against typical lines around 0.5, creating a +0.4 differential that has generated consistent value for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Max Strus Steals all games?
Bet over on Max Strus steals props. His 0.94 average significantly exceeds standard 0.5 lines, and he's hit overs at a 62.9% rate with +20.0% ROI. The consistency is remarkable with just 2-game max under streaks versus 6-game over streaks.
What's Max Strus's average Steals all games?
Max Strus averages 0.94 steals per game, which is 0.4 steals above the typical 0.5 line offered by sportsbooks. This substantial differential has created consistent value, as evidenced by his 62.9% over rate across 35 games this season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Max Strus steal props when Cleveland faces high-pace teams or turnover-prone opponents. His defensive role in passing lanes creates natural steal opportunities. Avoid when he's in foul trouble early or against methodical, low-turnover offenses that limit gambling opportunities.