Luka Dončić's steals props show a clear under bias over his last 10 games, hitting just 40.0% overs with a 4-6-0 record. Despite averaging 1.6 steals against a 1.5 line, the under has delivered a 14.6% ROI while overs lost 23.6%. The data points toward continued under value.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Dončić's defensive engagement fluctuating throughout this sample period. While his 1.6 average suggests he's slightly outperforming the standard 1.5 line, the 40% over rate reveals that this average is being inflated by occasional spike games rather than consistent production. The -23.6% ROI on overs indicates the market has been overvaluing his steal potential, likely influenced by his reputation as an active defender. The current two-game under streak aligns with a broader pattern of inconsistency in this category. Steals are notoriously volatile and game-script dependent, often correlating with opponent pace and Dončić's energy allocation between offense and defense. Given his heavy offensive workload, defensive stats like steals can suffer when he's conserving energy or when games become blowouts either direction. The 14.6% under ROI suggests sharp money has identified this inefficiency. With no clear split advantages showing consistent over conditions, the trend appears sustainable rather than due for regression. The modest 0.1 differential between average and line creates a narrow margin where even slight defensive disengagement pushes him under.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% under ROI and 60% under rate over 10 games reveals market inefficiency in Dončić's steals pricing. Target games where he's likely to coast defensively or face slower-paced opponents. Primary risk is a defensive showcase game where he actively hunts steals, but the data suggests these are outliers rather than the norm in his current approach.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Luka Dončić's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Dončić went 4-6-0 on steals overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40.0% of overs. He's currently on a two-game under streak, with his longest over streak being just one game during this span.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Luka Dončić Steals last 10 games?
Bet the under on Dončić steals props. The 60% under rate and 14.6% ROI on unders over 10 games shows clear market inefficiency, while overs have lost 23.6% during this period.
What's Luka Dončić's average Steals last 10 games?
Dončić averaged 1.6 steals over his last 10 games against the typical 1.5 line, creating a +0.1 differential. However, this modest edge hasn't translated to over success, hitting just 40% of the time.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Dončić steals unders in games where he's likely to conserve defensive energy, particularly against slower-paced teams or in potential blowout scenarios where his focus shifts primarily to offensive production and game management.