Luguentz Dort's steals prop has hit the over in 6 of his last 10 games (60.0% rate) while averaging 1.3 steals against a 0.5 line, creating a massive +0.8 differential. This represents a clear statistical edge favoring the over.
Expert Analysis
Dort's steals production over this 10-game sample reveals a fundamental mispricing by oddsmakers. Averaging 1.3 steals against a 0.5 line creates an enormous 160% cushion above the betting threshold, suggesting books are undervaluing his defensive impact. The 60% over rate with a +14.6% ROI demonstrates consistent profitability, while the modest sample size of 10 games provides enough data to identify a pattern without over-extrapolating. Dort's role as Oklahoma City's primary perimeter defender naturally generates steal opportunities, particularly as teams increasingly attack through pick-and-roll sets that put him in passing lanes. The +0.8 differential is exceptionally high for steals props, where margins are typically razor-thin. However, regression concerns exist given steals are inherently volatile and game-script dependent. Dort's steal production could decline if opponents avoid his defensive assignments or if Oklahoma City builds large leads that reduce defensive intensity. The longest under streak of just 2 games suggests consistent floor, but basketball's random nature means cold stretches are inevitable. The key question becomes whether this 10-game window represents Dort's true defensive ceiling or an unsustainable hot streak that will normalize toward historical averages.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +0.8 differential above the 0.5 line is too significant to ignore, and Dort's defensive role creates natural steal opportunities. The 60% hit rate with positive ROI supports continued over betting, though the small sample size and inherent volatility of steals prevent high confidence. Target this prop when Dort faces high-pace opponents or teams that turn the ball over frequently.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Luguentz Dort's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Dort has gone over his steals prop in 6 of his last 10 games for a 60% success rate. He's averaging 1.3 steals per game against the typical 0.5 line, creating an impressive +0.8 differential that has generated +14.6% ROI for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Luguentz Dort Steals last 10 games?
Lean over on Dort's steals props. The +0.8 differential above the 0.5 line is substantial, and his 60% over rate with positive ROI supports continued over betting. However, steals volatility prevents maximum confidence despite the strong trend.
What's Luguentz Dort's average Steals last 10 games?
Dort is averaging 1.3 steals over his last 10 games compared to the standard 0.5 line. This creates a massive +0.8 differential, meaning he's exceeding the betting threshold by 160% on average, which represents exceptional value for over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Dort's steals overs against high-pace teams or opponents with elevated turnover rates. His defensive role creates natural opportunities, but game script matters - avoid when Thunder are expected to build large leads that could reduce defensive intensity.