Luguentz Dort's blocks prop shows strong over value in home games, hitting 57.1% of the time with a +9.1% ROI. Despite averaging 0.82 blocks against a 0.5 line, the Thunder guard is currently mired in an 8-game under streak. The trend favors overs with medium conviction.
Expert Analysis
Dort's blocks production at home reflects his aggressive defensive positioning and the Thunder's uptempo style that creates more possessions and deflection opportunities. The 0.82 average against a 0.5 line represents significant value, as books consistently underestimate his shot-blocking ability from the guard position. His 6'4" frame and active hands allow him to challenge shots in ways typical point guards cannot. The current 8-game under streak appears to be negative variance rather than a fundamental shift, as his defensive role hasn't changed and the Thunder's pace remains high at home. The 57.1% over rate across 28 games provides solid sample size confidence, while the +9.1% ROI demonstrates consistent market inefficiency. Oklahoma City's home court advantage typically leads to more aggressive defensive schemes, putting Dort in positions to rack up deflections and blocks. The main concern is whether this under streak represents books finally adjusting the line correctly, but the historical data suggests regression to the mean is more likely than continued suppression of his blocking numbers.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.32 average differential above the line combined with 57.1% over rate creates legitimate value despite the current cold streak. Target games against teams with smaller guards or when the Thunder are favored by 3+ points, as these scenarios typically see Dort playing more aggressively. Main risk is the under streak continuing if his defensive role shifts.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Luguentz Dort's Blocks prop record home games?
Dort's blocks prop record in home games is 16-12-0 over/under, hitting the over 57.1% of the time. He averages 0.82 blocks per home game against the typical 0.5 line, generating a +9.1% ROI on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Luguentz Dort Blocks home games?
Lean over on Dort's blocks in home games. The 0.32 differential above the line and 57.1% over rate create value despite his current 8-game under streak, which appears to be negative variance.
What's Luguentz Dort's average Blocks home games?
Dort averages 0.82 blocks in home games, which is 0.32 above the standard 0.5 line. This significant differential has produced consistent over value across 28 games, making the prop attractive for over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Dort blocks overs when Oklahoma City is favored by 3+ points at home or facing teams with smaller backcourts. These scenarios typically see more aggressive defensive schemes that put Dort in optimal shot-blocking positions.