Kyrie Irving's home three-point prop presents a marginal edge with a 52.0% over rate (13-12-0) and 2.92 average against a 2.7 line. The +0.2 differential suggests slight value, but negative ROI on both sides indicates efficient pricing. Lean over based on the mathematical edge.
Expert Analysis
Irving's home three-point performance reveals a player who consistently exceeds modest expectations, averaging 2.92 makes against typical 2.7 lines across 25 games. The 52.0% over rate suggests books may be slightly undervaluing his home shooting comfort, though the -0.7% over ROI indicates this edge is razor-thin. The key driver appears to be Irving's familiarity with Dallas's home rim and sight lines, combined with increased comfort in his offensive rhythm at American Airlines Center. His current streak of one over follows a pattern of moderate volatility, with longest streaks of five overs and three unders indicating neither extreme sustainability nor complete randomness. The -8.4% under ROI is particularly telling, suggesting that betting unders has been consistently punishing. Irving's shot selection tends to be more aggressive at home, where crowd energy and familiar surroundings encourage his natural scoring instincts. However, the sample size caveat remains significant, and Irving's injury history creates additional variance. The trend's persistence likely depends on his continued health and role stability within Dallas's offensive system, making this more about consistent opportunity than hot shooting.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The mathematical edge is clear with Irving averaging 2.92 makes against 2.7 lines, and the 52.0% over rate provides a sustainable foundation. Target games where Dallas faces pace-up matchups or when Irving shows no injury designation. Primary risk is the thin margins involved and Irving's injury-prone history potentially affecting volume.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kyrie Irving's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Irving's home three-point prop record stands at 13-12-0 over/under across 25 games, representing a 52.0% over rate. This translates to hitting the over in 13 of 25 home appearances during the tracked period.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kyrie Irving 3-Pointers Made home games?
Lean over on Irving's home three-point props. He averages 2.92 makes against typical 2.7 lines, and under bets have produced a punishing -8.4% ROI, making overs the mathematically superior play.
What's Kyrie Irving's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Irving averages 2.92 three-pointers made in home games, which sits 0.22 makes above the typical 2.7 line. This consistent differential suggests books may be undervaluing his home shooting comfort and volume.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Irving's three-point props in home games against pace-up opponents or when he shows no injury designation. His home court advantage is most pronounced when Dallas faces teams that push tempo and create additional possessions.