Kyle Kuzma's three-pointers made props present a clear under opportunity with a 45.6% over rate across 68 games. His 2.15 average trails the typical 2.29 line by 0.14 makes, generating a profitable +3.9% ROI on unders versus a costly -13.0% loss on overs.
Expert Analysis
The numbers reveal a systematic overvaluation of Kuzma's three-point production by oddsmakers. His 2.15 makes per game average consistently falls short of the market's 2.29 expectation, creating a sustainable edge for under bettors. This isn't a recent cold streak—it's a season-long pattern spanning 68 games that suggests the market hasn't properly adjusted to Kuzma's actual role and shot selection in Washington's offense. The Wizards' pace and Kuzma's usage as more of a mid-range scorer than a volume three-point shooter likely drives this disconnect. His 31 overs against 37 unders demonstrates consistent underperformance relative to expectations. The -13.0% ROI on overs is particularly damning, indicating bettors have been consistently burned backing the higher number. Meanwhile, the +3.9% return on unders, while modest, represents genuine profit over a large sample. This type of persistent market inefficiency often stems from public perception lagging behind reality—casual bettors likely remember Kuzma's Lakers days and overestimate his current three-point volume.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 68-game sample provides strong evidence that the market consistently overprices Kuzma's three-point production. His 2.15 average versus the typical 2.29 line creates a meaningful edge, supported by profitable under results. The main risk is potential role changes or hot shooting stretches, but the persistent pattern suggests sustainable value on unders.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kyle Kuzma's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Kyle Kuzma has hit the over on three-pointers made in 31 of 68 games (45.6%) this season. His under record of 37-31 shows consistent performance below market expectations, making unders the profitable side.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kyle Kuzma 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet under on Kyle Kuzma's three-pointers made props. His 2.15 average trails the typical 2.29 line, and unders have generated +3.9% ROI while overs lose -13.0% over a 68-game sample.
What's Kyle Kuzma's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Kyle Kuzma averages 2.15 three-pointers made per game, which is 0.14 makes below the typical 2.29 line. This consistent gap between performance and market expectation creates value on the under.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kyle Kuzma three-pointers made unders when the line is set at 2.5 or higher. His season-long pattern of underperformance versus market expectations suggests consistent value regardless of opponent or situation.