Kris Murray's steals prop presents a modest edge with a 60% over rate (6-4-0) across his last 10 games. The Portland forward is averaging 1.2 steals against a typical 1.0 line, generating a solid +14.6% ROI on overs. This trend suggests a lean over approach.
Expert Analysis
Murray's steal production has shown consistent upward pressure against the betting market, with his 1.2 average representing a meaningful 20% edge over the standard 1.0 line. The 60% over rate isn't overwhelming, but it's backed by solid fundamentals that suggest sustainability. As a versatile forward in Portland's rotation, Murray benefits from increased defensive responsibility and court time that naturally creates more steal opportunities. The Trail Blazers' pace and defensive scheme appear to favor active hands in passing lanes, which plays directly into Murray's skill set. His current three-game over streak indicates momentum, though the sample size demands caution. The +14.6% ROI on overs demonstrates real value extraction, while the -23.6% under ROI shows the market has been consistently undervaluing his defensive activity. However, steal props are inherently volatile, and Murray's role could shift based on Portland's lineup decisions or game flow. The lack of detailed split data limits our ability to identify optimal spots, but the baseline trend suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to his defensive impact in his current role.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Murray's 1.2 average against the 1.0 line creates a sustainable edge, supported by his three-game over streak and solid 60% hit rate. The +14.6% ROI indicates genuine value rather than variance. Target this prop when Murray projects for 25+ minutes and Portland faces teams that generate higher steal opportunities through turnovers. Main risk is the inherent volatility of steal props and potential role changes in Portland's rotation.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kris Murray's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Kris Murray has gone over his steals prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% over rate) with a 6-4-0 record. He's currently riding a three-game over streak, showing recent momentum in his defensive production.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kris Murray Steals last 10 games?
Lean over on Murray's steals prop based on his 1.2 average against the typical 1.0 line and 60% over rate. The +14.6% ROI on overs suggests the market undervalues his defensive impact in Portland's system.
What's Kris Murray's average Steals last 10 games?
Murray is averaging 1.2 steals over his last 10 games, which is 0.2 steals above the standard 1.0 line. This 20% edge over the betting line has translated into consistent over performance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Murray's steals overs when he projects for significant minutes and Portland faces turnover-prone opponents. His defensive activity increases with court time, making minute projections crucial for maximizing this prop's value.