Kris Dunn's steals prop has hit the over in 60% of his last 10 games, generating a solid +14.6% ROI for over bettors. The Jazz guard is averaging 1.4 steals against a typical 0.9 line, creating consistent value. This represents a lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Kris Dunn's steal production over this 10-game stretch reflects his defensive instincts finally translating to consistent opportunities in Utah's system. The 1.4 average against 0.9 lines suggests books are undervaluing his defensive impact, likely anchored to his career norms rather than his current role. The +0.5 differential is substantial for steals props, where margins are typically razor-thin. What's particularly encouraging is the sustainability factor - Dunn has always possessed quick hands and anticipation skills, but Utah's defensive scheme appears to be maximizing his steal opportunities through favorable positioning and increased minutes. The 60% hit rate over 10 games provides decent sample size confidence, though the recent 2-game under streak suggests some natural variance. Books may be slow to adjust lines upward, especially for a role player like Dunn whose steal production can appear random to casual observers. However, the underlying defensive metrics and usage patterns suggest this isn't just a hot streak but rather a reflection of his expanded defensive responsibilities. The key risk lies in game script dependency - steals often correlate with pace and opponent turnover tendencies, factors that can vary significantly from game to game.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Dunn's 1.4 average against 0.9 lines creates clear mathematical value, supported by his enhanced defensive role in Utah's system. Target games against turnover-prone opponents or higher-pace matchups where steal opportunities multiply. The main risk is the inherently volatile nature of steals props and potential line adjustments as books catch up to his improved production.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kris Dunn's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Kris Dunn has gone over his steals prop in 6 of his last 10 games for a 60% hit rate. Over bettors have generated a +14.6% ROI during this stretch, while under bettors have lost -23.6%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kris Dunn Steals last 10 games?
Lean over on Dunn's steals props. His 1.4 average significantly exceeds typical 0.9 lines, creating mathematical value. Focus on games against turnover-heavy opponents where steal opportunities increase naturally through game flow.
What's Kris Dunn's average Steals last 10 games?
Dunn is averaging 1.4 steals over his last 10 games compared to the typical 0.9 line. This +0.5 differential represents substantial value in the steals market where edges are usually measured in tenths.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Dunn's steals props against high-turnover teams or in faster-paced games where steal opportunities multiply. Avoid back-to-back situations where his defensive intensity might wane due to fatigue factors.