Kris Dunn's assists props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% over rates across his last 10 games with a brutal -0.7 differential versus the typical 4.2 line. The Jazz guard is currently riding a five-game under streak, making this one of the season's most reliable fade spots.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of Kris Dunn's diminished playmaking role within Utah's offensive system. Averaging just 3.5 assists against a 4.2 line represents a significant 16.7% shortfall that suggests either the market hasn't adjusted to his reduced usage or there are structural factors limiting his distribution opportunities. The five-game under streak isn't just variance—it reflects a player whose primary value has shifted from facilitating to other areas like defense and energy. Utah's pace and offensive philosophy appear to be constraining Dunn's assist opportunities, with the team likely running more isolation sets or utilizing other primary ball handlers in crucial moments. The 33.6% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't a small edge but a substantial market inefficiency. What's particularly compelling is the consistency—going 3-7 over 10 games shows this isn't just a recent cold stretch but a sustained pattern. The lack of even a three-game over streak suggests the underlying conditions haven't changed. For a player prop to maintain this level of predictability over double-digit games indicates either a role change the market hasn't recognized or systematic factors that continue to suppress his assist production.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 70% under rate combined with the -0.7 differential creates a compelling mathematical edge that shows no signs of regression. Dunn's role appears fundamentally altered from previous seasons, and Utah's offensive system isn't maximizing his playmaking opportunities. The ideal spot is when the line sits at 4.0 or higher, though even 3.5 offers value. The primary risk is a blowout game where garbage time inflates his numbers, but the consistency of this trend outweighs that concern.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kris Dunn's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Kris Dunn has gone 3-7 on assists overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of the time. He's averaging 3.5 assists against lines typically set around 4.2, creating a -0.7 differential that heavily favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kris Dunn Assists last 10 games?
Bet the under on Kris Dunn assists props. The 70% under rate with a -0.7 average differential represents one of the season's most reliable edges, supported by his current five-game under streak and apparent role changes within Utah's system.
What's Kris Dunn's average Assists last 10 games?
Kris Dunn is averaging 3.5 assists over his last 10 games, which sits 0.7 assists below the typical 4.2 line. This 16.7% shortfall has created consistent value for under bettors throughout this stretch.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kris Dunn assists unders when the line is set at 4.0 or higher, particularly in games where Utah faces strong defensive teams that limit transition opportunities. Avoid during potential blowouts where garbage time could inflate his numbers.