Klay Thompson's three-pointer props show clear under value with a 4-6-0 over/under record (40% over rate) across his last 10 games. The under bet has generated +14.6% ROI while overs have lost -23.6%, despite Thompson averaging just 0.1 makes above his typical 3.7 line. This represents a solid under lean.
Expert Analysis
Thompson's recent three-point shooting reveals a player whose props are consistently overvalued by the market. While his 3.8 average appears to match expectations against a 3.7 line, the 60% under rate tells the real story. Thompson has hit four or more threes in just four of ten games, suggesting books are pricing in his ceiling performances rather than his realistic floor. The longest under streak of four games indicates extended cold periods that savvy bettors can exploit. What makes this trend particularly valuable is Thompson's binary nature as a shooter - he either catches fire for 6-8 threes or struggles to reach even three makes. The market consistently prices the hot version while ignoring the cold reality. Thompson's shot selection hasn't changed, but his efficiency has shown notable variance. When he's off, he stays off for multiple games, creating extended under runs that generate consistent profit. The +14.6% ROI on unders isn't accidental - it reflects a systematic mispricing of Thompson's realistic output versus his reputation. With one under already in progress, the pattern suggests continued value on the under until Thompson shows sustained shooting improvement over multiple games.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% under rate combined with +14.6% ROI creates clear value, especially with Thompson currently on a one-game under streak. The market consistently overvalues his three-point ceiling while underestimating his shooting variance. Target unders when the line sits at 3.5 or higher, particularly in back-to-back situations or against strong perimeter defenses. Main risk is Thompson's ability to explode for 6+ threes in any given game.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Klay Thompson's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Klay Thompson's three-pointers made props went 4-6-0 over/under in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. He averaged 3.8 makes against a typical 3.7 line, barely exceeding expectations despite his reputation.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Klay Thompson 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Bet the under on Klay Thompson's three-pointers made props. The 60% under rate with +14.6% ROI shows clear value, while overs have lost -23.6%. His shooting variance creates consistent under opportunities despite his elite reputation.
What's Klay Thompson's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Klay Thompson averaged 3.8 three-pointers made over his last 10 games, just 0.1 above his typical 3.7 line. This minimal edge combined with 60% under results shows the market overvalues his realistic output.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Klay Thompson three-pointer unders when lines are 3.5 or higher, especially during back-to-back games or against strong perimeter defenses. His shooting variance creates the best value during extended cold stretches like his current under streak.