Klay Thompson's steals prop shows a modest edge toward overs with a 54.5% hit rate (24-20-0) and positive 4.1% ROI. His 0.7 average consistently beats the typical 0.5 line by 0.2 steals per game. Lean over in favorable matchups.
Expert Analysis
Thompson's steal production exceeds market expectations due to Golden State's aggressive defensive scheme and his improved positioning in his return from injury. The 0.7 average against a 0.5 line represents genuine value, as books appear slow to adjust to his defensive engagement level this season. His steal rate benefits from the Warriors' pace and switching defense, which creates more deflection opportunities. The modest 54.5% over rate suggests sustainability rather than variance-driven results. However, the limited sample size and Thompson's age-related decline in lateral quickness present regression risks. His steal production correlates strongly with playing time and defensive intensity, both of which can fluctuate based on game script and rest considerations. The three-game over streak indicates current form alignment with the broader trend. Most concerning is the significant -13.2% ROI on unders, suggesting the market may be undervaluing his defensive contributions. Thompson's steal props work best when Golden State faces up-tempo opponents or when he's playing extended minutes in competitive games where defensive effort remains high throughout.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Thompson's 0.7 average substantially exceeds the typical 0.5 line, creating consistent value despite the modest 54.5% over rate. Target games against pace-heavy opponents where Golden State projects to play competitive defense. Main risk is reduced minutes in blowouts or rest games affecting his steal opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Steals Prop Lines
Compare Klay Thompson props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Klay Thompson's Steals prop record all games?
Thompson's steals prop record stands at 24-20-0 over/under across 44 games, hitting the over 54.5% of the time. Over bets generated a positive 4.1% ROI while under bets lost 13.2%, indicating consistent market undervaluation of his defensive production.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Klay Thompson Steals all games?
Lean over on Thompson's steals props, particularly when the line sits at 0.5. His 0.7 season average creates genuine value against typical market pricing. Focus on games where Golden State projects competitive defense and avoid potential rest situations.
What's Klay Thompson's average Steals all games?
Thompson averages 0.7 steals per game this season, consistently beating the standard 0.5 line by 0.2 steals. This differential represents legitimate value as his defensive positioning and the Warriors' scheme generate more steal opportunities than books account for.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Thompson's steals props against uptempo opponents where Golden State will play extended competitive defense. Avoid back-to-back situations or games with large projected spreads where his minutes and defensive intensity might decrease significantly.