Klay Thompson has hit the over on his points total in 6 of his last 10 games, posting a 60% over rate with a +1.8 average differential versus his lines. The Warriors veteran is currently riding a four-game over streak and generating solid 14.6% ROI for over bettors.
Expert Analysis
Thompson's recent scoring surge reflects his evolving role in Golden State's offensive hierarchy as the season progressed. The 19.7 points per game average represents a meaningful uptick from his season-long expectations, suggesting either improved health, increased usage, or favorable matchup sequences. The consistent +1.8 differential indicates oddsmakers may be lagging behind Thompson's current form, particularly given his streaky nature as a shooter. The four-game over streak aligns with Thompson's historical patterns of extended hot stretches, where confidence breeds more aggressive shot selection and teammates actively seek him out. However, the 23.6% ROI loss on unders suggests this trend has been somewhat predictable, raising questions about line efficiency going forward. Thompson's age and injury history create natural regression concerns, especially if his recent shooting percentages are unsustainable. The Warriors' playoff positioning and rest considerations could also impact his minutes and shot attempts. Still, when Thompson finds his rhythm, he tends to maintain it for extended periods, and his veteran savvy allows him to manufacture scoring opportunities even when the primary offense stalls.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Thompson's four-game streak and consistent line-beating suggest he's found his stroke at the right time. The +1.8 differential indicates value remains in the over, particularly if he continues receiving similar usage. Primary risk is natural regression from his current shooting efficiency and potential rest days as Golden State manages veteran minutes down the stretch.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 17.5 | 19.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 16.5 | 27.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 21.5 | 32.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 16.5 | 29.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 17.5 | 14.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 17.5 | 13.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 17.5 | 15.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 16.5 | 17.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 16.5 | 23.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 21.5 | 8.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Klay Thompson's Points prop record last 10 games?
Thompson has gone over his points total in 6 of his last 10 games for a 60% over rate. He's averaging 19.7 points against lines averaging 17.9, creating a +1.8 differential that favors over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Klay Thompson Points last 10 games?
Lean over on Thompson's points props. His current four-game over streak and +1.8 average differential suggest he's in good form, though natural regression and rest concerns prevent a stronger recommendation.
What's Klay Thompson's average Points last 10 games?
Thompson is averaging 19.7 points over his last 10 games compared to average lines of 17.9. This +1.8 differential indicates he's consistently outperforming oddsmaker expectations during this recent stretch.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Thompson overs when he's showing shooting confidence and the Warriors need scoring. Avoid during back-to-back situations or when Golden State has comfortable leads where veteran rest becomes priority.