Klay Thompson's home points props present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 44.4% of overs across 27 games with a -1.0 average differential below the line. The -15.2% over ROI versus +6.1% under ROI creates a sustainable edge for disciplined under bettors.
Expert Analysis
Thompson's home scoring struggles stem from Golden State's pace-and-space system working too efficiently around him. At Chase Center, the Warriors average faster possessions and better ball movement, creating more open looks for teammates while reducing Thompson's individual shot volume. His 16.93 home average trails his typical line by a full point, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his diminished role in Steve Kerr's evolved offense. The concerning 44.4% over rate isn't random variance—it reflects Thompson's transition from primary scorer to complementary piece. When Curry and Wiggins handle more creation duties at home, Thompson becomes more selective, taking higher-quality shots but fewer attempts overall. The five-game under streak earlier this season demonstrates how this trend can persist when the supporting cast stays healthy. However, the recent two-game over streak warns against blind under betting, as Thompson can still explode when his rhythm aligns with increased usage. The key risk lies in potential injury situations that could force Thompson back into a primary scoring role, dramatically shifting his shot distribution and invalidating this home-specific pattern.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Thompson's home scoring consistently falls short of inflated lines, creating sustainable value for under bettors. Target games where Curry and supporting cast are healthy, maximizing the system efficiency that limits Thompson's individual volume. Main risk involves injury-driven usage spikes that could temporarily reverse this trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 17.5 | 19.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 21.5 | 32.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 17.5 | 14.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 16.5 | 17.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 16.5 | 23.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 11.5 | 23.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 15.5 | 3.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 16.5 | 5.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 19.5 | 24.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 19.5 | 16.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-24 | OPP | 19.5 | 24.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 18.5 | 13.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 18.5 | 25.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-04 | OPP | 15.5 | 24.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-02 | OPP | 16.5 | 15.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Klay Thompson's Points prop record home games?
Thompson's home points props show a 12-15-0 over/under record across 27 games, hitting just 44.4% of overs. His home average of 16.93 points consistently trails the typical 17.91 line by nearly a full point.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Klay Thompson Points home games?
Lean under on Thompson's home points props. The 44.4% over rate and -15.2% ROI on overs create clear value betting unders, especially when Golden State's supporting cast remains healthy and limits his shot volume.
What's Klay Thompson's average Points home games?
Thompson averages 16.93 points in home games, falling short of his typical 17.91 line by 1.0 point. This consistent differential reflects his reduced role in Golden State's more efficient home offensive system.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Thompson under props when Curry and key teammates are healthy, maximizing the ball movement that limits his individual attempts. Avoid betting during injury situations that could force increased usage and scoring responsibility.