Khris Middleton's assists prop shows a modest 56.2% over rate across 16 games, hitting 9-7-0 with a +7.4% ROI on overs. His 5.25 average barely exceeds the typical 5.19 line, creating minimal edge despite the positive record. This represents a lean over situation with limited conviction.
Expert Analysis
Middleton's assists trend reflects his natural evolution as a secondary playmaker in Washington's offense, where his court vision and basketball IQ translate into consistent facilitation opportunities. The 56.2% over rate isn't overwhelming, but the +7.4% ROI on overs suggests books are slightly undervaluing his passing ability in this new system. His 5.25 average against a 5.19 line creates a razor-thin edge that requires careful line shopping. The lack of dramatic variance in his assist numbers indicates steady role definition rather than explosive upside games. Washington's pace and offensive structure appear to provide consistent opportunities for Middleton to rack up assists without the burden of primary creation duties he carried in Milwaukee. However, the modest differential warns against aggressive betting, as this trend could easily reverse with minor role adjustments or opponent-specific game scripts. The two-game under streak shows natural variance rather than concerning regression, but it highlights how thin the margin for error remains. Middleton's assists prop lives in that dangerous middle ground where the edge exists but isn't substantial enough to warrant heavy investment.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Middleton's 56.2% over rate and positive ROI indicate books are slightly undervaluing his passing in Washington's system. The 5.25 average versus 5.19 line creates a small but measurable edge. Target games where Washington faces up-tempo opponents or when the spread suggests competitive flow. Main risk is the minimal differential leaves little room for variance or role changes that could quickly eliminate this modest advantage.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 7.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 5.5 | 1.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-17 | OPP | 6.5 | 2.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-11 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-01 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
Compare Khris Middleton props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Khris Middleton's Assists prop record all games?
Middleton's assists prop shows a 9-7-0 record over 16 games, hitting overs at a 56.2% rate. His average of 5.25 assists slightly exceeds the typical 5.19 line, generating a modest +7.4% ROI on over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Khris Middleton Assists all games?
Lean over on Middleton's assists props. The 56.2% over rate and positive ROI indicate slight book undervaluation, but the minimal edge requires selective betting and careful line shopping to maximize value in this narrow advantage.
What's Khris Middleton's average Assists all games?
Middleton averages 5.25 assists across all games, which sits 0.06 above the typical 5.19 line. This small differential creates a measurable but modest edge that requires precise execution to capitalize on the slight book undervaluation.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Middleton assists overs when Washington faces up-tempo teams or in competitive games where flow favors ball movement. The minimal edge requires optimal conditions and precise line shopping to overcome the thin margin for error.