Keon Ellis has delivered a solid 60% over rate on his three-pointers made props across his last 10 games, averaging 1.9 makes against a typical 1.5 line. The Kings guard is currently riding a three-game over streak with a healthy +0.4 differential above market expectations. This presents a lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Ellis has found his rhythm from beyond the arc, consistently exceeding the modest 1.5 line that books are setting for the Sacramento role player. The 60% over rate isn't just lucky variance - it reflects Ellis earning more minutes and taking quality looks as the Kings have leaned into his defensive versatility and spot-up shooting ability. His 1.9 average represents meaningful production for a player whose three-point volume has stabilized around 4-5 attempts per game when given consistent rotation minutes. The +14.6% ROI on overs suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to Ellis's expanded role, particularly in games where Sacramento needs perimeter defense and floor spacing. The current three-game over streak indicates he's locked into a rhythm, though regression risk exists if his minutes fluctuate or if he hits a cold shooting stretch. Ellis thrives in uptempo games where Sacramento pushes pace, creating more transition and kick-out opportunities. The biggest concern is roster health - if key players return or if coach Mike Brown adjusts rotations, Ellis could see his opportunities diminish quickly. However, his defensive contributions have earned him trust, suggesting his floor time should remain relatively stable.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Ellis has established himself as a reliable contributor who consistently finds quality three-point looks, and the 1.9 average against a 1.5 line provides solid value. The three-game streak and +0.4 differential indicate he's in good form. Target this prop in faster-paced games or when Sacramento needs his defensive versatility. Main risk is minute volatility if rotations shift.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Keon Ellis's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Keon Ellis has gone over his three-pointers made prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% over rate), with a 6-4-0 record. He's averaging 1.9 makes against typical 1.5 lines, creating a +0.4 positive differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Keon Ellis 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Lean over on Ellis's three-pointers made props. His 1.9 average significantly exceeds the standard 1.5 line, he's riding a three-game over streak, and the +14.6% ROI on overs indicates market inefficiency favoring the over.
What's Keon Ellis's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Ellis is averaging 1.9 three-pointers made over his last 10 games, which sits 0.4 makes above the typical 1.5 line. This represents solid value for a role player who's found consistent shooting opportunities in Sacramento's system.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ellis three-point props in faster-paced games where Sacramento pushes tempo, creating more transition opportunities. Also favorable when the Kings need his defensive versatility against opposing guards, as this correlates with extended minutes and more offensive touches.