Keon Ellis shows modest over-hitting at 53.8% (7-6 record) with a meaningful 0.4 differential above his typical 1.42 line. The +2.8% ROI on overs suggests legitimate value despite the small sample size. This warrants a lean over approach on favorable lines.
Expert Analysis
Ellis's three-point production reveals a player consistently exceeding market expectations, averaging 1.85 makes against a 1.42 baseline. The 53.8% over rate might appear marginal, but the 0.4 differential tells a more compelling story about systematic undervaluation. Sacramento's pace-heavy system creates natural variance in three-point attempts, and Ellis has carved out a defined role as a perimeter threat when given minutes. The current three-game over streak aligns with his season-long pattern of outperforming modest lines. However, the 13-game sample demands caution, as role players like Ellis face inherent volatility in usage. His production heavily depends on game flow and rotational consistency, factors that can shift quickly in Sacramento's deep backcourt. The negative ROI on unders (-11.9%) reinforces that books may be setting lines too conservatively, but regression remains possible as the sample grows. Ellis's shooting mechanics and confidence appear stable, suggesting this isn't merely a hot streak but rather a reflection of his actual skill level meeting opportunity.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.4 differential above market expectations combined with positive over ROI indicates genuine value, particularly when Ellis sees consistent minutes in Sacramento's fast-paced system. Target overs when the line sits at 1.5 or below, as Ellis has shown he can consistently reach that threshold. Main risk is rotational uncertainty and small sample size variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Keon Ellis's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Keon Ellis has hit the over on his Three Pointers Made prop 7 times in 13 games (53.8% rate) with a 7-6-0 record. He averages 1.85 makes per game against a typical line of 1.42.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Keon Ellis 3-Pointers Made all games?
Lean over on Keon Ellis Three Pointers Made props. His 1.85 average significantly exceeds the 1.42 line, creating a 0.4 differential that has produced positive ROI for over bettors this season.
What's Keon Ellis's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Keon Ellis averages 1.85 Three Pointers Made per game, which is 0.4 makes above his typical line of 1.42. This differential has consistently favored over bettors throughout his 13-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ellis Three Pointers Made overs when lines are set at 1.5 or below and he's in the regular rotation. Sacramento's fast pace creates optimal conditions for his perimeter shooting opportunities.