Keon Ellis has hit exactly 50% of his rebounds overs in his last 10 games with a 5-5 record, averaging 4.1 rebounds against a 3.5 line for a +0.6 differential. Despite the positive differential, both sides show negative ROI at -4.5%, suggesting market efficiency. The current 4-game under streak creates slight contrarian value on the over.
Expert Analysis
Ellis's rebounding profile presents a classic case of market adjustment catching up to performance. His 4.1 average against a 3.5 line suggests consistent value on overs, yet the negative ROI indicates the market has been pricing his props efficiently despite the surface-level differential. The 50% hit rate over 10 games represents perfect randomness, but the underlying 0.6 rebound edge per game shouldn't be ignored. Ellis's role as a wing player for Sacramento means his rebounding production largely depends on defensive positioning and pace of play. The current 4-game under streak matches his longest over streak from earlier in the sample, suggesting natural variance rather than a fundamental shift in his rebounding approach. Without specific split data, we must rely on his consistent role within Sacramento's rotation. The negative ROI on both sides indicates sharp market pricing, but the mathematical edge of averaging 0.6 rebounds above the line creates long-term value. Ellis's rebounding consistency appears more reliable than the recent under streak suggests, particularly given his defensive responsibilities haven't changed significantly during this stretch.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 4.1 average against a 3.5 line provides a meaningful edge despite the recent under streak and negative ROI. Ellis's role hasn't fundamentally changed, making the current 4-game under run more likely variance than sustainable trend. The mathematical differential of +0.6 rebounds per game offers long-term value, especially with potential regression from the recent cold stretch.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Keon Ellis's Rebounds prop record last 10 games?
Ellis has gone 5-5 on rebounds overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% while averaging 4.1 rebounds against a typical 3.5 line. Both over and under bets show -4.5% ROI despite his positive differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Keon Ellis Rebounds last 10 games?
Lean over on Ellis rebounds. His 4.1 average beats the 3.5 line by 0.6 rebounds per game, and the current 4-game under streak creates contrarian value. The mathematical edge supports long-term over betting despite recent results.
What's Keon Ellis's average Rebounds last 10 games?
Ellis averages 4.1 rebounds over his last 10 games compared to the standard 3.5 line, creating a +0.6 differential. This consistent edge suggests he's producing above market expectations despite the 50% over rate.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ellis rebounds overs after under streaks when the line stays at 3.5 or lower. His consistent role and the +0.6 average differential create the best value when recent results haven't inflated the number.