Keon Ellis has been a blocks prop goldmine on the under, hitting just 20% overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -0.2 differential versus the 0.5 line. The Kings guard's defensive positioning and limited rim protection opportunities create a sustainable edge for under bettors.
Expert Analysis
Ellis's blocks struggles stem from Sacramento's defensive scheme and his role as a perimeter-focused guard. At 0.3 blocks per game against a 0.5 line, he's consistently falling short by meaningful margins. The 80% under rate isn't just variance—it reflects his actual defensive responsibilities. Ellis operates primarily on the wing and in passing lanes, rarely dropping into help defense where blocks naturally occur. His 6-game under streak demonstrates the consistency of this pattern. The Kings' pace-and-space offense limits transition opportunities where guards typically accumulate blocks, while their defensive rotations keep Ellis away from the rim. Sacramento's improved team defense has actually worked against Ellis's individual block production, as better positioning means fewer desperation swipe attempts. The sample size of 10 games provides sufficient data to identify this as a systematic issue rather than temporary cold shooting. Ellis's physical profile and defensive assignments create structural barriers to consistent block production that the betting market hasn't fully adjusted to recognize.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Ellis's 0.3 average against the 0.5 line represents a clear mathematical edge, supported by his defensive role and team scheme. Target this prop when the line remains at 0.5, particularly in faster-paced games where his perimeter focus becomes more pronounced. Primary risk is potential lineup changes that could shift his defensive responsibilities toward more interior coverage.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Keon Ellis's Blocks prop record last 10 games?
Ellis has gone 2-8 on blocks overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% with an average of 0.3 blocks against the typical 0.5 line, creating a -0.2 differential that heavily favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Keon Ellis Blocks last 10 games?
Bet under on Ellis blocks props. His 80% under rate and -0.2 average differential versus the line create a mathematical edge, supported by his perimeter defensive role that limits rim protection opportunities consistently.
What's Keon Ellis's average Blocks last 10 games?
Ellis averages 0.3 blocks over his last 10 games compared to the standard 0.5 line. This -0.2 differential represents a significant gap that consistently favors under bettors with strong mathematical backing.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ellis blocks unders when the line stays at 0.5, especially in faster-paced games where his perimeter focus intensifies. Avoid when Sacramento faces teams with poor interior scoring that might force different defensive alignments.