Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's steal props have been a goldmine for under bettors, going 8-2 under the last 10 games with a devastating 0.8 average against a 1.4 line. The 52.7% under ROI and current four-game under streak signal a clear betting edge on the under.
Expert Analysis
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's steal production has fallen off a cliff over his last 10 games, averaging just 0.8 steals against a consistent 1.4 line. This 0.6 differential represents a massive market inefficiency that sharp bettors have exploited for a 52.7% ROI on unders. The trend appears structural rather than variance-driven, as Caldwell-Pope has hit the over just twice in 10 games while going under in eight contests. His current four-game under streak represents the longest dry spell in this sample, with no corresponding over streak longer than a single game. This consistency suggests the market hasn't properly adjusted to Caldwell-Pope's reduced defensive impact, whether due to role changes, effort level, or simply aging reflexes. The Memphis system may not be maximizing his steal opportunities, or opposing teams have identified ways to limit his defensive disruption. With books still hanging 1.4 as the standard line, there's clear value in continuing to fade Caldwell-Pope's steal production until the market corrects or his performance rebounds.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's 20% over rate and 0.6 negative differential create compelling under value, especially with the market slow to adjust the 1.4 line. The four-game under streak and 8-2 overall record provide strong statistical backing. Main risk is positive regression, as elite defenders can suddenly return to form, but the consistency of this trend suggests betting unders until the line drops or performance improves.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has gone 2-8 over/under on steals props in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of overs. He's averaging 0.8 steals against a typical 1.4 line, creating a 0.6 negative differential that has produced consistent under results.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Steals last 10 games?
Bet the under on Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's steals. His 8-2 under record, 0.6 negative differential, and 52.7% under ROI create clear value. The market hasn't adjusted to his reduced defensive production, making unders the sharp play until the line drops.
What's Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's average Steals last 10 games?
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is averaging 0.8 steals over his last 10 games compared to the standard 1.4 line. This 0.6 negative differential represents a significant gap between his actual production and market expectations, favoring under bettors consistently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Caldwell-Pope steal unders when the line remains at 1.4 or higher, especially during his current four-game under streak. Avoid betting after any rare over performance, as the market may temporarily overcorrect before reverting to the profitable 1.4 standard.