Kelly Oubre Jr.'s three-pointers made prop shows consistent under value with a 43.3% over rate across 30 games. His 1.67 average barely exceeds the typical 1.57 line, generating +8.2% ROI on unders while overs lose -17.3%. The data strongly favors betting under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers reveal a classic case of market inefficiency in Kelly Oubre Jr.'s three-point props. Despite averaging 1.67 makes per game, which appears to justify the standard 1.57 line, the distribution tells a different story. Oubre Jr.'s shooting profile suggests high variance with inconsistent volume, leading to frequent under performances that the market hasn't fully adjusted for. The -17.3% ROI on overs indicates bettors are consistently overvaluing his three-point ceiling, likely influenced by his occasional explosive games that skew perception. Philadelphia's offensive system and Oubre Jr.'s role within it appear to create natural limitations on his three-point opportunities, particularly when the team prioritizes interior scoring or when game flow doesn't favor perimeter shooting. The 57% under rate demonstrates remarkable consistency over 30 games, suggesting this isn't random variance but a structural edge. The longest under streak of three games indicates sustainable patterns rather than extreme clustering, while the modest +0.1 differential between average and line creates a narrow but exploitable margin that compounds over multiple bets.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 57% under rate and positive 8.2% ROI create a solid foundation for consistent profits on Oubre Jr.'s three-point unders. Target games where Philadelphia faces strong perimeter defenses or when pace projections favor fewer possessions. Primary risk lies in Oubre Jr.'s occasional heat-check performances that can quickly push him over inflated lines, making selective game selection crucial for maximizing this edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kelly Oubre Jr.'s 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Kelly Oubre Jr. has gone under his three-pointers made prop in 17 of 30 games (57%) this season, with 13 overs for a 43.3% over rate. This consistent under performance has generated positive returns for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kelly Oubre Jr. 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet under on Kelly Oubre Jr.'s three-pointers made props. The 57% under rate and +8.2% ROI on unders provide a clear statistical edge, while overs have lost -17.3% ROI over the sample period.
What's Kelly Oubre Jr.'s average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Kelly Oubre Jr. averages 1.67 three-pointers made per game compared to his typical 1.57 line. While this +0.1 differential seems to favor overs, the actual distribution heavily favors unders with 57% success rate.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kelly Oubre Jr. three-point unders when Philadelphia faces strong perimeter defenses or in lower-paced games. Avoid betting during potential shootouts or when he's coming off multiple under performances that might trigger regression.