Fade UNDER
3-7 O/U Record
30.0% Over Rate
-4.3u Units Won
-42.7% ROI
Find Best Line

Kelly Oubre Jr.'s steals props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -42.7% ROI on the over side. His 0.7 average sits 0.4 steals below the typical 1.1 line, creating consistent value on unders.

Expert Analysis

The numbers tell a clear story about Kelly Oubre Jr.'s defensive activity declining significantly from expectations. His 0.7 steals average over this 10-game stretch represents a meaningful drop from the 1.1 line that books continue to set, suggesting either slow market adjustment or inflated pricing based on season-long averages. The 30% over rate is particularly damning when you consider that steals props typically need to hit around 45-50% to break even after juice. What makes this trend especially compelling is the consistency - Oubre Jr. has recorded multiple four-game under streaks, indicating this isn't random variance but a sustained pattern. The 76ers' defensive scheme may be limiting his opportunities for aggressive steal attempts, or opposing teams could be avoiding his side of the court. Without pace or matchup data to suggest imminent regression, this appears to be a legitimate shift in his defensive role rather than temporary bad luck. The +33.6% ROI on unders over 10 games represents substantial value that sharp bettors should continue exploiting until the market corrects or his role changes.

Betting Verdict

LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Kelly Oubre Jr.'s steals props offer legitimate value on the under side, with his 0.7 average sitting well below typical lines around 1.1. The consistency of this underperformance across 10 games suggests a role-based issue rather than variance. Primary risk is market correction if books start setting lines closer to his actual output, but until then, unders remain profitable.

3 OVERS (30.0%)
7 UNDERS
0% 50% breakeven 100%

Performance vs Line

Game Log (Last 10 Games)

Date Opp Line Actual +/- Result
2025-02-07 OPP 1.5 1.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-04-14 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-03-31 OPP 1.5 2.0 +0.5 OVER
2024-03-29 OPP 1.5 0.0 -1.5 UNDER
2024-03-27 OPP 0.5 1.0 +0.5 OVER
2024-03-24 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-03-16 OPP 1.5 1.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-03-14 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-03-12 OPP 1.5 0.0 -1.5 UNDER
2024-02-22 OPP 1.5 2.0 +0.5 OVER

Key Splits

Home vs Away

Home 50.0% Over
Away 16.7% Over

Favorite vs Underdog

Favorite 50.0% Over
Underdog 50.0% Over

Recent Trend

Last 5 40.0% Over
Last 10 30.0% Over

Find the Best Steals Prop Lines

Compare Kelly Oubre Jr. props across top sportsbooks.

Compare Sportsbooks

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Kelly Oubre Jr.'s Steals prop record last 10 games?

Kelly Oubre Jr. has gone 3-7-0 over/under on steals props in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% overs. This represents one of the most profitable under trends among rotation players, with consistent value against inflated lines.

Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kelly Oubre Jr. Steals last 10 games?

Bet under on Kelly Oubre Jr.'s steals props. His 0.7 average sits 0.4 steals below typical 1.1 lines, creating consistent value. The +33.6% ROI on unders over 10 games makes this a clear lean until books adjust pricing.

What's Kelly Oubre Jr.'s average Steals last 10 games?

Kelly Oubre Jr. is averaging 0.7 steals over his last 10 games compared to the typical 1.1 line. This -0.4 differential represents significant value, as he's consistently falling short of market expectations by a meaningful margin.

How reliable is this trend?

Target Kelly Oubre Jr. steals unders when lines are set at 1.0 or higher, particularly against teams that limit transition opportunities. His current role with Philadelphia appears to limit aggressive defensive plays, making unders profitable until market adjustment occurs.

Methodology: This analysis covers 10 games from 2024-02-22 to 2025-02-07. O/U results use closing prop lines. ROI assumes -110 juice. Pushes excluded from percentages.