Kelly Olynyk's assists prop presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 36.8% of overs across 19 games with a -0.3 average differential versus the line. The Raptors big man is currently riding a five-game under streak, and the data suggests books are consistently overvaluing his playmaking upside.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a compelling picture for Kelly Olynyk under betting. His 5.05 assists per game average consistently falls short of the typical 5.34 line, creating negative value on overs that translates to a brutal -29.7% ROI for over bettors. This isn't random variance - it reflects Olynyk's role within Toronto's system where his primary responsibilities center on spacing and rebounding rather than primary ball-handling duties. The veteran big man operates more as a facilitator from the high post rather than a true point-forward, limiting his assist ceiling in most game scripts. His current five-game under streak represents his longest of the season, but rather than signaling regression, it reinforces the sustainable nature of this trend. Olynyk's assist production heavily depends on Toronto's pace and his teammates' shooting efficiency, both variables that have worked against over bettors. The 20.6% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't just about avoiding bad overs - there's genuine profit in consistently backing the under. Books appear slow to adjust their lines downward, possibly overweighting Olynyk's occasional high-assist games while ignoring his more common modest totals.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 36.8% over rate and consistent -0.3 differential create sustainable value on Olynyk assists unders, particularly when the line sits at 5.5 or higher. The current five-game under streak reflects his true role limitations rather than temporary bad luck. Primary risk comes from potential pace-up games or injury-related usage spikes, but the underlying trend remains sound for disciplined under betting.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 5.5 | 10.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 5.5 | 1.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kelly Olynyk's Assists prop record all games?
Kelly Olynyk has hit the over on his assists prop in just 7 of 19 games (36.8%) this season, going 7-12-0 overall. He averages 5.05 assists per game against a typical line of 5.34, showing consistent underperformance.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kelly Olynyk Assists all games?
Bet under on Kelly Olynyk's assists props. The 36.8% over rate and -0.3 average differential create clear value, especially at lines of 5.5 or higher. His role limitations in Toronto's system support continued under betting.
What's Kelly Olynyk's average Assists all games?
Kelly Olynyk averages 5.05 assists per game, running 0.3 assists below the typical 5.34 line. This consistent shortfall has produced a -29.7% ROI for over bettors while unders have generated +20.6% returns.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kelly Olynyk assists unders when the line is 5.5 or higher, particularly in standard pace games. Avoid during potential pace-up spots or when Toronto faces injury-depleted opponents that might increase his ball-handling responsibilities.