Keldon Johnson's three-point production has been consistently disappointing, hitting the over in just 40% of his last 10 games with a brutal -0.5 differential versus the betting line. The under has delivered a solid 14.6% ROI while overs have hemorrhaged 23.6%, making this a clear fade spot.
Expert Analysis
Johnson's three-point struggles reflect a fundamental shift in his role within San Antonio's evolving offense. Averaging just 1.2 makes against a 1.7 line reveals books haven't adjusted to his decreased volume and efficiency from deep. The Spurs' emphasis on developing Victor Wembanyama and their young core has pushed Johnson into more of a complementary role, reducing his high-usage possessions that previously generated quality three-point looks. His 40% over rate isn't just bad luck—it's a structural issue. Johnson's shot selection has become more contested as defenses focus on limiting San Antonio's primary threats, forcing him into tougher attempts late in the shot clock. The current two-game under streak and previous three-game under run demonstrate this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern. Books appear slow to adjust lines downward, creating sustained value on the under. Johnson's three-point shooting has always been streaky, but his current role limits the volume needed for positive regression. The -0.5 differential is massive in three-point props, suggesting either continued under value or an eventual sharp line correction that eliminates the edge.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The combination of role reduction, poor shot quality, and inflated lines creates consistent under value. Johnson's decreased usage in San Antonio's system limits his three-point volume, while books haven't properly adjusted the 1.7 line downward. The main risk is positive shooting regression, but his structural role change suggests this trend has staying power.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
Compare Keldon Johnson props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Keldon Johnson's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Johnson has gone 4-6 on three-point made overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% while averaging 1.2 makes. The under has been profitable with a 14.6% ROI compared to brutal -23.6% losses on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Keldon Johnson 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Lean under on Johnson's three-point props. His 1.2 average versus 1.7 lines shows books haven't adjusted to his reduced role, creating consistent under value with solid 14.6% ROI over this sample.
What's Keldon Johnson's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Johnson is averaging 1.2 three-pointers made over his last 10 games compared to typical betting lines around 1.7. This -0.5 differential is significant and suggests books are overvaluing his current three-point production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Johnson three-point unders when he's in a complementary role with reduced usage. Avoid when San Antonio faces weak perimeter defenses or in potential blowouts where garbage time could inflate his attempts and makes.