Keldon Johnson's steals props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% over the last 10 games with a devastating -42.7% ROI on overs. Johnson averages 0.9 steals against typical 0.5 lines, but the under trend shows remarkable consistency. Strong lean under on future steals props.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Keldon Johnson's defensive impact shifting away from steal production. His 0.9 average against 0.5 lines initially suggests over value, but the 70% under rate reveals books haven't adjusted properly to his changing role. Johnson's steals production has become increasingly inconsistent as San Antonio has emphasized his offensive responsibilities more heavily this season. The Spurs' defensive scheme appears to position Johnson in help defense rather than aggressive passing lane disruption, explaining why he's failing to reach even modest steal totals consistently. His longest under streak of three games demonstrates the sustainability of this trend, while his maximum over streak of just one game shows how rare his explosive steal performances have become. The -42.7% ROI on overs represents one of the most lopsided prop trends in the market, suggesting books are slow to recognize Johnson's reduced steal upside. With San Antonio focusing on developing their young core's offensive skills, Johnson's defensive gambling has decreased significantly, making under bets increasingly profitable despite his seemingly low lines.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 70% under rate and brutal -42.7% over ROI create clear value on Johnson's steal unders. Books appear slow to adjust to his reduced defensive aggression in San Antonio's development-focused system. Target under bets when lines remain at 0.5, as Johnson's role prioritizes offensive growth over steal hunting. Main risk is a defensive scheme change that puts him back in passing lanes.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Steals Prop Lines
Compare Keldon Johnson props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Keldon Johnson's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Johnson has gone 3-7-0 over/under on steals props in his last 10 games, hitting the under 70% of the time. This represents a strong trend toward lower steal production despite seemingly achievable lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Keldon Johnson Steals last 10 games?
Bet the under on Johnson's steals props. The 70% under rate and +33.6% ROI on unders create clear value, while overs have lost bettors 42.7% of their investment over this sample.
What's Keldon Johnson's average Steals last 10 games?
Johnson averages 0.9 steals per game over his last 10 contests, which is 0.4 above typical 0.5 lines. However, this average masks inconsistent production that favors under bets despite the positive differential.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Johnson's steal unders when lines remain at 0.5, particularly in games where San Antonio emphasizes offensive development. Avoid when facing high-pace teams that might force more aggressive defensive positioning from Johnson.